| 张永强,王薇,李锡太,杜世昌,徐赐贤,乔宏,孙鑫贵.北京市2008-2023年手足口病时间分布特征[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2024,45(10):1383-1389 |
| 北京市2008-2023年手足口病时间分布特征 |
| Temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing, 2008-2023 |
| Received:April 16, 2024 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240416-00196 |
| KeyWord: 手足口病 集中度 圆形分布 时间分布 |
| English Key Word: Hand, foot and mouth disease Concentration degree Circular distribution Temporal distribution |
| FundProject:首都卫生发展科研专项（2022-1G-4261） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Zhang Yongqiang | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | | | Wang Wei | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | | | Li Xitai | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | | | Du Shichang | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | | | Xu Cixian | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | | | Qiao Hong | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | | | Sun Xingui | Office of Health Emergency, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China | sunxinguiyjb@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析北京市手足口病的时间分布特征，为手足口病防控提供参考依据。方法 收集2008-2023年中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统中北京市手足口病发病数据，运用时间序列季节性分解图、集中度（M）法与圆形分布法等分析手足口病时间分布特征。采用WPS 2019软件进行数据整理，采用Python 3.12软件分析和制作统计图。结果 2008-2015年北京市手足口病分月发病波动幅度整体高于2016-2022年；2016-2022年分月发病波动幅度整体呈逐渐降低趋势。2008-2015年M=0.58，显示发病有较强的季节性；圆形分布法平均角（α）为174.95°，平均角标准差（s）为60.43°，对应高峰日、高峰期分别为6月27日、4月27日至8月27日。2016-2019年和2023年M=0.57，显示发病有较强的季节性；α=228.05°，s=61.44°，对应高峰日、高峰期分别为8月20日、6月18日至10月21日。2020-2022年M=0.42，表示有一定的季节性；α=238.27°，s=76.35°，高峰日、高峰期分别为7月15日、6月14日至11月14日。2008-2015、2016-2019年和2023、2020-2022年的α值经Watson-Williams检验，差异有统计学意义（F=33 443.09，P<0.001）。2023年的M=0.77，显示发病有很强的季节性，高峰日、高峰期分别为9月16日、8月5日至10月28日。结论 2008-2023年北京市手足病发病的季节性特征明显，存在发病高峰日及高峰期的整体后移现象，应加强不同维度分布特征的综合性分析，做好高峰期重点地区、重点场所及重点人群的手足口病防控工作。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing and provide reference evidence in HFMD prevention and control. Methods The monthly incidence data of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2023 were collected from Notifiable Disease Management Information System of the Chinese Information System of Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were analyzed by the methods of time series seasonal decomposition graph, concentration degree, and circular distribution.The WPS office software 2019 was used to clean the data, Python software 3.12 was used to analyze and make statistical charts. Results The monthly incidence fluctuation of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2015 was higher than that from 2016 to 2022. From 2016 to 2022, the fluctuation range of monthly incidence showed a gradually decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2015, the concentration (M) was 0.58, indicating a relatively strong seasonality; the mean angle (α) calculated by the circular distribution method was 174.95°, and the mean angle standard deviation (s) was 60.43°. The annual incidence peak occurred on June 27, and the incidence peak period was from April 27 to August 27. From 2016 to 2019 and 2023, the M was 0.57, indicating a relatively strong seasonality. The α was 228.05°, and s was 61.44°. The annual incidence peak occurred on August 20, and the incidence peak period was from June 18 to October 21. From 2020 to 2022, the M was 0.42, indicating a seasonality, the α was 238.27° and s was 76.35°. The annual incidence peak occurred on July 15, and the incidence peak period was from June 14 to November 14. The α of 2008-2015, 2016-2019 and 2023, and 2020-2022 were tested by the Watson-Williams method and the difference was statistically significant (F=33 443.09, P<0.001). In 2023, the M was 0.77, indicating a strong seasonality. The incidence peak occurred on September 16, and the incidence peak period was from August 5 to October 28. Conclusions The seasonality of HFMD in Beijing was obvious from 2008 to 2023, and the incidence peak day and peak period overall had rearward shifts. It is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive analysis of the distribution characteristics at different dimensions and the comprehensive prevention and control in key areas, places, and populations during the peak incidence period. |
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