| 曾光,胡真,杨天英,李林村,来秀君,吴贵坤,陈长志,魏建军,朱伯健,王福泉,阎亚林,李金城,Stephen B. Thacker,吴泰顺,徐昌,徐涛,柔克明,朱宝兰,李瑞兰,徐长松,王全庆,杜世君,张清彦,郭爱芝,刘福贵,王相义,轩勤生,李培珍,赵文立,刘红敏,俞文祥,刘建民,任守礼,郑善平,温宏伟.Bayes概率预测法在控制八十年代流行性脑脊髓膜炎流行高峰中的应用[J].中华流行病学杂志,1990,11(4):193-197 |
| To control the coming epidemic peak of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (ECM) in the 1980s in the regions with 100 million population in China, the mathematical models based upon Bayes'. theorem (BT) were established and used respectively in provincial; regional and county's level. Reports of ECM from each ten-day's period or each month during the meningitis season were analysed to create forecast models. Records of ECM vaccinating rate in previous years were fully taken into accout to modify the theoritical values. Calibration, split-sample,random-sample selection, as well as actual forecast tests, were used to check the efficiency of the models, The distribution of meningitis vaccine was planned according to the final predictive results. The incidence rates of ECM of above regions decreased obuiously faster than other areas;n China. Attributing the application of BT forecast research, it was estimated only in Henan province 79795 ECM cases; 4388 deaths and 21 million Yuan economic damage were avoided during the 4 years period, from 1985 to 1988. |
