文章摘要
梅家模,曾光.关于Reed-Frost模型的研究和改进[J].中华流行病学杂志,1994,15(2):110-113
关于Reed-Frost模型的研究和改进
Study and Improvement of Reed-frost Model
收稿日期:1992-04-22  出版日期:2021-05-29
DOI:
中文关键词: Reed-Frost模型;流行;隐性感染
英文关键词: Reed-Frost model;Epidemic;Inapparent infection
基金项目:
作者单位
梅家模 江西省卫生防疫站 330046 南昌市 
曾光 中国预防医学科学院流行病学微生物学研究所 
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中文摘要:
      笔者提出了对Reed-Frost模型的学术评论,并新建了一种Reed-Frost模型的改进模型。该改进模型全面考虑了隐性感染者的产生、传染作用及向免疫者的转化。应用这个模型,模拟了New England的麻疹流行和中国上海市某保育院的水痘流行,结果颇为理想。该模型包括了基本的流行要因,故能用以解释流行过程,并可帮助流行病学工作者理解隐性感染在传染病流行过程中的作用。
英文摘要:
      The purpose of this paper is to modify the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics with the underlying assumptions of the model including the occurrence of inapparent infections, and their influence on the course of the epidemic. With this model two epidemics were computed: (1) the Aycock outbreak of measles in a New England boy-boarding school in 1934; (2) the outbreak of chickenPox in a Shanghai kindergarten in 1950. The calculated and observed results were well in agreement. A substantial improvement in fitness was shown as measured by chi-square tests.
As presented, the model offers a reasonably good explanation on the occurrence of inapparent infections and its effect on the pattern of the disease.
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