| 姜波,何伟,刘清波,秦杰,杨文慧,刘颖.甘南县首例婴儿哺乳期感染流行性出血热的报告[J].中华流行病学杂志,2000,21(5):340 |
| 甘南县首例婴儿哺乳期感染流行性出血热的报告 |
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| 收稿日期:2000-04-30 出版日期:2014-09-24 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 血吸虫病|时间序列分析|统计预测 |
| 英文关键词: |
| 基金项目:国家“十五”科技攻关课题资助项目(2001BA705B08) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 3249 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 1999年12月21日，甘南县人民医院报告流行性脑脊髓膜炎1例，接到报告后甘南县卫生防疫站2名防疫人员到县人民医院进行流行病学调查。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the Results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002. Methods Error sum of square of four statistical Methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen. Results Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40,39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002. |
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