肿瘤发病人数估计的分层捕获-再捕获方法

高桂明; 方积乾; 柳青; 刘颜

文章摘要

高桂明,方积乾,柳青,刘颜.肿瘤发病人数估计的分层捕获-再捕获方法[J].中华流行病学杂志,2001,22(3):223-225

肿瘤发病人数估计的分层捕获-再捕获方法

Stratified`capture-recaptured' methodology in the estimation on the number of cancer incidence cases

收稿日期:2000-08-26 出版日期:2014-09-16

DOI：

中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤分层捕获-再捕获模型

英文关键词: Neoplasms Stratification Capture-recapture model

基金项目:国家“九五”科技攻关项目(96-906-01-09)

作者	单位
高桂明	510080 广州, 中山医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室
方积乾	510080 广州, 中山医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室
柳青	510080 广州, 中山医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室
刘颜	510080 广州, 中山医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室

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中文摘要:

目的　建立一种估计广州市越秀区恶性肿瘤发病人数方法。方法　根据死亡统计和医院病案两种来源收集肿瘤病例,建立分层捕获再捕获模型,应用Bayesian方法估计模型的参数。分析程序由SAS编程语言编写。结果　越秀区男性和女性恶性肿瘤人数的估计值分别为 6 10例和 5 2 0例,现有调查方式获得的男性和女性肿瘤发病资料的漏报率的估计值分别为 8.5 %和 5.4%。结论模拟研究的结果说明分层捕获再捕获模型及对应的参数估计方法在估计肿瘤发病人数时比较可靠。

英文摘要:

ObjectiveTo develop a new method in estimating the number of cancer incidence in Yuexiu district in Guangzhou.Methods Data of cancer incidence was collected thorugh hospital records and death certificates to develop a stratified capture-recaptured model.Related procedures for the parameter estimation were given and implemented on SAS language.Results Estimated numbers of both male and female cancer incidence in Yuexiu district were 610 and 520 respectively.The estimated miss-reporting rates on both male and female cancer incidence from hospital records and death certificates were 8.5% and 5.4% respectively.Conclusion The result of simulation studies showed that stratified ` capture-recaptured' model proposed in this paper was reliable for the estimation of the number of cancer incidence cases.

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