| 黄晓亮,戴灵真,卢萍,尚羽,李怡,陶晔彬,黄薇.广州市2004—2008年大气污染对城区居民每日死亡率影响的时间序列分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2012,33(2):210-214 |
| 广州市2004—2008年大气污染对城区居民每日死亡率影响的时间序列分析 |
| Time-series analysis on the acute mortality affected by air pollution, in the city of Guangzhou, 2004-2008 |
| 收稿日期:2011-09-01 出版日期:2014-09-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 大气污染 死亡率 时间序列分析 超额风险 |
| 英文关键词: Air pollution MortalityAir pollution Mortality Time-series analysis Excess riskTime-series analysis Excess risk |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 评价2004—2008年广州市大气污染短期暴露与居民死亡风险的相关性。方法 采用时间序列方法, 对主要大气污染物可吸人颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化氮(N02)和二氧化硫(S02)与每日死亡率相关性进行Poisson回归分析。结果 模型分析结果表明, 通过控制年龄、性别、时间、星期几效应和气象因素, 发现PM10、NO2和SO2这3种大气污染物暴露与超额死亡风险存在正相关关系。广州市3种大气污染物在过去48h的暴露浓度每上升10ng/m3所对应的总死亡的超额风险分别为0.94%(0.79~1.09)、1.55%(1.31~1.78)和1.09%(0.91~1.27)。研究结果表明, 大气污染物暴露与心血管系统疾病或呼吸系统疾病死亡的关联显著, 对老年人和女性的影响更为显著。结论 广州市主要大气污染短期暴露与居民的超额死亡风险显著相关。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study the associations between daily mortality and the status of exposure to air pollution. Methods A time-series analysis was conducted to assess the relations between acute mortality and exposure to respiratory particulate matter(PMi0), sulte-dioxide(S02) and nitrogen dioxide(N02) in urban residents of Guangzhou(2004-2008), using Poisson regression. Results Through controling the factors as temperature, relative humidity, age, gender and time, significant increases were observed in all-cause mortality of 0.94%(0.79-1.09) for PMi。, 1.55%(1.31-1.78) for N02, and 1.09%(0.91-1.27) for S02, per 10 when increase of the lagging2-day average concentrations of air pollution was seen, in Guangzhou. Stronger effects of exposure to air pollution were found on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as well as in elderly(^65 years) and female population. Conclusion Our results suggested that exposure to ambient pollution was significantly associated with the increase of excess risks, on total and cardio-respiratory mortality in the residents of Guangzhou. |
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