| 方艳,宋铁,李灵辉,代吉亚,易建荣,傅军华,谢雪妹,林锦炎.广东省传染病自动预警系统运行现状分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2013,34(8):800-803 |
| 广东省传染病自动预警系统运行现状分析 |
| Current situation on the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in Guangdong province, China |
| 收稿日期:2013-04-23 出版日期:2014-09-03 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 传染病|预警系统 |
| 英文关键词: Infectious disease|Early-warning system |
| 基金项目:广东省"十二五"医学重点学科(公共卫生应急管理);广东省医学科研基金指令性课题(C2013003) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析广东省传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)运行现状.方法 分析CIDARS三种预警方法的预警信号数与响应时间,并比较调整前后的预警信号阳性率、错误预警率.结果 2008年4月21日至2012年12月31日,广东省共发出114 585条预警信号,平均响应时间为1.35 h.其中固定阈值法发出12 394条预警信号,阳性率为7.96％；移动百分位数法发出85727条预警信号,阳性率为0.85％；累积和控制图法发出16 464条预警信号,阳性率为1.82％.报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关(r=0.924,P＜0.01).2010年中国疾病预防控制中心对CIDARS调整后,广东省预警信号阳性率从1.48％升至2.14％,甲型肝炎、细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒等8种传染病的错误预警率下降.结论 CIDARS预警信号响应及时,运行状况良好；CIDARS调整后预警效能提高,但-些功能和参数仍需调整和完善. |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the current situation on China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in Guangdong province,China.Methods Earlywarning signals and response time were analyzed by using three approaches of CIDARS.Positive rates of early-warning signals and error early-warning rates prior and after the adjustment,were compared.Results Totally,114 585 early-warning signals appeared,with an average response time of 1.35 hours from April 21,2008 to December 31,2012.There were 12 394 early-warning signals in terms of fixed threshold method with a positive rate of 7.96％.85 727 early-warning signals appeared under the mobile percentile method with a positive rate of 0.85％.There were 16 464 early-warning signals by using accumulation and control chart methods,with a positive rate of 1.82％.Results showed there was a positive correlation between the number of reported cases and the number of early-warning signals (r.=0.924,P＜ 0.01).The overall positive rate in Guangdong province increased from 1.48％ to 2.14％,after the adjustment done by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2010.The error early-warning rates regarding eight infectious diseases including hepatitis A,bacillary or amebic dysentery,both typhoid and paratyphoid fevers had reduced.Conclusion The early-warning signal response appeared timely in CIDARS with good operation.However,despite the improvement on the efficacy of CIDARS,some functions and parameters of the systems still need to be adjusted. |
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