文章摘要
苟发香,刘新凤,刘东鹏,任晓卫,李娟生,刘海霞,郑芸鹤,魏孔福,杨筱婷,成瑶,孟蕾.甘肃省2009-2014年乙型肝炎报告发病率的时空聚集性研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(1):85-89
甘肃省2009-2014年乙型肝炎报告发病率的时空聚集性研究
Spatial-temporal distribution of hepatitis B in Gansu province, 2009-2014
收稿日期:2015-06-08  出版日期:2016-01-12
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.01.018
中文关键词: 肝炎,乙型;地理信息系统;时空聚集分析
英文关键词: Hepatitis B;Geographic information system;Spatial-temporal clustering
基金项目:甘肃省卫生行业科研计划项目(GSWST 2012-06);国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10004-208)
作者单位E-mail
苟发香 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
刘新凤 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
刘东鹏 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
任晓卫 730000 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所  
李娟生 730000 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所  
刘海霞 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
郑芸鹤 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
魏孔福 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
杨筱婷 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
成瑶 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科  
孟蕾 730000 兰州, 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所急性传染病防治科 ccdcusc101@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      目的 使用空间统计学研究方法,分析2009-2014年甘肃省乙型肝炎(乙肝)报告发病率的时空分布特征,探索热(冷)点及时空聚集性,为该地区未来乙肝防控提供科学依据。方法 利用2009-2014年甘肃省乙肝报告发病率数据和GeoDa、SatScan空间统计学软件,通过空间自相关性和扫描统计量的分析,在县/区水平探索该地区乙肝发病的热(冷)点地区及其空间变化趋势,并分析其时空聚集性。结果 2009-2014年甘肃省乙肝报告发病率存在空间自相关性;局部G统计量显示热点县/区数量有下降趋势,主要分布在河西地区,临夏回族自治州与甘南藏族自治州热点县/区数量有上升趋势;冷点区域未发现有明显规律;时空扫描结果显示,乙肝高发病率可能聚集于河西地区,聚集时间为2009-2011年;而低发病率可能聚集于甘肃东部地区,聚集时间为2012-2014年。结论 2009-2014年甘肃省乙肝报告发病率存在时间与空间的聚集性,河西地区热点县/区数量有下降趋势,临夏回族自治州与甘南藏族自治州热点县/区数量呈上升趋势,应成为未来甘肃省乙肝防控的重点区域。
英文摘要:
      Objective To understand the hot/cold spots and the spatial-temporal clustering of hepatitis B in Gansu province during 2009-2014 by using spatial statistics, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of hepatitis B. Methods The spatial hot/cold spots and its trend, and the time frame and areas of its spatial- temporal clustering of hepatitis B in Gansu were analyzed by using the county specific incidence of hepatitis B from 2009 to 2014 and spatial statistical software GeoDa and SatScan. Results The incidences of hepatitis B from 2009 to 2014 in Gansu were spatial autocorrelated respectively. Local G scan statistics indicated that the number of hot spots was in decline in Hexi area, while the hot spots was in increase in Linxia Hui autonomous prefecture and Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture. There was no obvious pattern in cold spots. Temporal-spatial scan statistics showed that the areas with high hepatitis B incidence most likely clustered in Hexi area during 2009-2011, and the areas with low hepatitis B incidence most likely clustered in eastern Gansu during 2012-2014. Conclusions The spatial and temporal clustering of hepatitis B was observed in Gansu from 2009 to 2014. The number of hot spots in Hexi area was in decline, while the numbers of hot spots in Linxia and Gannan were in increase, suggesting that the hepatitis B control and prevention in these areas should be strengthened.
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