| 贾蕾,王小莉,吴双胜,马建新,李洪军,高志勇,王全意.应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(1):102-105 |
| 应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数 |
| Estimation of excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model |
| 收稿日期:2015-06-04 出版日期:2016-01-12 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.01.022 |
| 中文关键词: 病毒性腹泻 调整Serfling回归模型 超额病例数 |
| 英文关键词: Viral diarrheal Adjusted Serfling regression model Excess case number |
| 基金项目:北京市自然科学基金(7132045) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 构建调整Serfling回归模型,估计北京市2011年至2015年5月23日病毒性腹泻相关 <5岁儿童超额腹泻病例数。方法 利用北京市2家儿童专科医院 <5岁儿童急性腹泻周就诊病例数,拟合调整Serfling回归模型,估计其病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数。结果 北京市2011年第8～10周、40～42周,2012年第40～46周,2013年第43～49周,2014年第45周直到2015年第11周为病毒性腹泻流行周。2家儿童专科医院各年度流行周 <5岁儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额就诊病例数分别为911(95%CI:261～1 561)、1 998(95%CI:1 250～2 746)、1 645(95%CI:891～2 397)、2 806(95%CI:1 938～3 674)、1 822(95%CI:614～3 031)例,分别占同期全部 <5岁儿童腹泻就诊病例数的40.38%(95%CI:11.57%～69.19%)、44.21%(95%CI:27.66%～60.77%)、45.08%(95%CI:24.42%～65.69%)、60.87%(95%CI:42.04%～79.70%)和66.62%(95%CI:22.45%～110.82%)。估计北京市2011年至2015年5月23日 <5岁儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额就诊病例数为18 731(95%CI:10 106～27 354)例。结论 冬季是 <5岁儿童病毒性腹泻发病及就诊高峰。调整Serfling回归模型提示:应关注致急性胃肠炎病毒,尤其是诺如病毒的病原学变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To estimate the excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing from 1 January 2011 to 23 May 2015. Methods The excess numbers of diarrheal cases among the children aged <5 years were estimated by using weekly outpatient visit data from two children's hospital in Beijing and adjusted Serfling regression model. Results The incidence peaks of viral diarrhea were during 8th-10th week and 40th-42nd week in 2011, 40th-46th week in 2012, 43rd-49th week in 2013 and 45th week in 2014 to 11th week in 2015 respectively. The excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in the two children's hospital were 911(95%CI: 261-1 561), 1 998(95%CI: 1 250-2 746), 1 645 (95%CI: 891-2 397), 2 806(95%CI: 1 938-3 674) and 1 822(95%CI: 614-3 031) respectively, accounting for 40.38%(95%CI: 11.57%-69.19%), 44.21%(95%CI: 27.66%-60.77%), 45.08%(95%CI: 24.42%-65.69%), 60.87%(95%CI: 42.04%-79.70%) and 66.62% (95%CI: 22.45%-110.82%) of total outpatient visits due to diarrhea during 2011-2015, respectively. Totally, the excess number of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing was estimated to be 18 731(95%CI: 10 106-27 354) from 2011 to 23 May 2015. Conclusions Winter is the season of viral diarrhea for children aged <5 years. The adjusted Serfling regression model analysis suggested that close attention should be paid to the etiologic variation of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis, especially the etiologic variation of norovirus. |
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