| 张梅,黄正京,李镒冲,王丽敏,姜勇,赵文华.中国35岁及以上人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(5):689-693 |
| 中国35岁及以上人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测 |
| Prediction of 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease in adults aged ≥ 35 years in China |
| 收稿日期:2015-10-04 出版日期:2016-05-13 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.05.021 |
| 中文关键词: 心血管病,缺血性 风险评估 |
| 英文关键词: Ischemic cardiovascular disease Risk evaluation |
| 基金项目:2010年中央转移支付地方项目 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 评估我国≥35岁人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险。方法 2010年在全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团的162个监测点,采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样方法,调查≥18岁成年人98712名,抽取其中≥35岁无缺血性心血管病史者共计67214人为调查对象,通过体格测量和相关指标实验室检测,以及面对面问卷调查收集吸烟情况,高血压、糖尿病和心血管病患病情况。采用国人缺血性心血管病10年发病危险度评估表预测缺血性心血管病10年发病风险。结果 我国≥35岁无缺血性心血管病史人群的缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测得分为5.1(95%CI:4.9~5.2),平均危险度为4.2%(95%CI:4.0%~4.4%)。其中缺血性心血管病10年发病危险为高危者占8.5%(95%CI:7.8%~9.2%),男性(12.1%,95%CI:11.1%~13.0%)明显高于女性(4.9%,95%CI:4.4%~5.5%)(P<0.05),农村人群(8.8%,95%CI:7.8%~9.7%)高于城市人群(8.1%,95%CI:7.2%~8.9%)(P<0.05);10年发病风险为中危和低危者比例分别为19.1% (95%CI:18.2%~20.0%)和72.4%(95%CI:70.9%~73.9%)。随着教育水平提高或收入增加,缺血性心血管病10年发病风险为高危和中危者的比例均有所下降(P<0.05),而低危者的比例上升(P<0.05)。结论 我国≥35岁人群中有8.5%在未来10年发生缺血性心血管病的可能性超过10%,其中尤为应关注男性、农村、教育水平较低、收入较低人群。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To estimate the 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) in adults aged ≥35 years. Methods In 2010, we conducted a cross sectional survey among 98 712 adults aged ≥18 years selected through using multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling, and 67 214 adults without ICVD history and aged ≥35 years were recruited as study subjects. Their information on cardiovascular disease history and related behavior risk factors, including smoking, hypertension and diabetes diagnosis history were collected through face-to-face questionnaire interview, health examination and laboratory detection. The 10-year risk for ICVD in this group was evaluated according to the China 10-year risk for ICVD score tables. Results The average score and 10-year risk for ICVD in the adults aged ≥35 years were 5.1 (95%CI:4.9-5.2) and 4.2% (95%CI:4.0%-4.4%), respectively. A total of 8.5% of the adults aged ≥35 years had high 10-year risk for ICVD (95%CI:7.8%-9.2%). This proportion was 12.1% for males (95%CI:11.1%-13.0%) and 4.9% for females (95%CI:4.4%-5.5%) (P<0.05), 8.8% for those living in rural areas (95%CI:7.8%-9.7%) and 8.1% for those living in urban areas (95%CI:7.2%-8.9%)(P<0.05). About 19.1% and 72.4% of adults had middle and low 10-year risk for ICVD, respectively (95%CI:18.2%-20.0%, 95%CI:70.9%-73.9%). The proportion of the adults with high and middle risk for ICVD in 10 years was higher among those with lower educational level or with lower income level (P<0.05). Conclusion About 8.5% of the adults aged ≥35 years in China have high 10-year risk for ICVD. Being male, living in rural area, with lower education or lower income levels were related with the higher 10-year risk for ICVD. |
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