文章摘要
周林,刘守钦,张军,王莹,韩京,刘盈君.应用捕获-标记-再捕获法评估济南市户籍居民死亡登记漏报水平[J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(4):482-485
应用捕获-标记-再捕获法评估济南市户籍居民死亡登记漏报水平
Capture-mark-recapture analysis on the under-registration rate of mortality surveillance program in Jinan
投稿时间:2016-09-12  
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.04.014
中文关键词: 捕获-标记-再捕获法;漏报率;死因监测
英文关键词: Capture-mark-recapture;Under-registration rate;Mortality surveillance
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
周林 250021 济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所  
刘守钦 250021 济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所 liushouqin@sina.com 
张军 250021 济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所  
王莹 250021 济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所  
韩京 250021 济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所  
刘盈君 250021 济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所  
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中文摘要:
      目的 应用捕获-标记-再捕获法(capture-mark-recapture,CMR)评估2013-2014年济南市居民死亡登记漏报水平。方法 采用分层整群随机抽样方法,按照城乡分层抽取济南市2个区、3个县,从抽中的每个县(区)随机抽取3个乡镇(街道),每个乡镇(街道)随机抽取8个村(居委会)。通过民政、公安、妇幼、村医、村干部、社区居委会搜集辖区内2013年1月1日至2014年12月31日的户籍人口死亡名单,与死因监测数据进行比对,计算漏报率。结果 本次调查共收集济南市2013-2014年死亡病例2 903例,死因监测登记同期死亡病例3 113例,CMR估计死亡病例3 772例(95%CI:3 741~3 802),死因监测漏报率为17.46%。不同类别的漏报率比较,2013、2014年漏报率分别为19.29%、15.57%(χ2 =8.92,P< 0.01)。城区、农村漏报率分别为20.91%、11.93%(χ2=47.35,P< 0.01)。男性、女性漏报率分别为17.87%、16.98%(χ2 =0.48,P> 0.05),< 5岁组、≥5岁组漏报率分别为21.57%、17.45%(χ2 =0.03,P> 0.05)。结论 济南市死因监测存在一定程度的漏报,应用CMR可以评估漏报水平,建议定期开展漏报调查,校正常规监测数据,并针对发现的漏报重点环节进行改进。
英文摘要:
      Objective To evaluate the under-registration rate related to mortality surveillance program in Jinan city, from 2013 to 2014, using the capture-mark-recapture method. Methods Under the stratified cluster random sampling method, samples were stratified, according to urban and rural areas. Two districts and three counties were chosen, with three towns/streets in each county/district and eight villages/communities in each township/street, randomly selected. With the participation of departments as civil affairs, public security, maternal/child institutions and community committees as well as individuals as village doctors and community leaders, a list of deaths from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014 was collected and compared to the National Mortality Surveillance System on the rates related to under-registration. Results A total of 2 903 records on deaths were collected from 2013 to 2014,while 3 113 deaths were reported in the surveillance system of the same period. 3 772 (95%CI:3 741-3 802) deaths were estimated by the capture-mark-recapture method. The two-year total under-registration rate was 17.46%. The under-registration rates in 2013 and 2014 appeared as 19.29% and 15.57% (χ2 =8.92, P< 0.01), respectively, with the rates in urban and rural areas as 20.91% and 11.93% (χ2 =47.35, P< 0.01). The rates on male and female were 17.87% and 16.98% (χ2 =0.48, P> 0.05). The rates of < 5 years old group and ≥5 years old group were 21.57% and 17.45% (χ2 =0.03, P> 0.05) respectively. Conclusions Under-registration in the mortality surveillance was noticed in Jinan. The capture-mark-recapture method seemed useful for evaluating the under-registration rate in the mortality surveillance program. It is suggested that the survey on under-registration rate should be carried out on the regular base. The under-registration rate seemed useful in adjusting the mortality rate.
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