| 祝寒松,陈思,王明斋,欧剑鸣,谢忠杭,黄文龙,林嘉威,叶雯婧.厦门市2013－2017年手足口病发病与气象因素影响分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2019,40(5):531-536 |
| 厦门市2013－2017年手足口病发病与气象因素影响分析 |
| Analysis on association between incidence of hand foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in Xiamen, 2013-2017 |
| 收稿日期:2018-09-29 出版日期:2019-05-17 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.05.008 |
| 中文关键词: 手足口病 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 |
| 英文关键词: Hand, foot and mouth disease Meteorological factor Distributed lag nonlinear models |
| 基金项目:福建省自然科学基金（2016J01348） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 研究厦门市气象因素对手足口病发病的影响，为手足口病的预警预测和防控提供科学依据。方法 采用R3.4.3软件对2013－2017年厦门市日平均本站气压、日平均相对湿度、日平均气温、日照时数等气象因素资料和日手足口病发病数进行相关分析和分布滞后非线性模型分析。结果 厦门市2013－2017年共报告手足口病36 464例，发病数呈上升趋势（F=40.359，P=0.008）。日平均相对湿度、日平均气温和日照时数与手足口病发病呈正相关（r>0），日平均本站气压与手足口病发病呈负相关（r<0）。在滞后0～5 d的情况下，日平均本站气压>1 005 hPa时，随着气压的增高，手足口病发病风险逐渐增加；发病风险随着滞后天数的增加而减弱；气压为1 017 hPa滞后0 d时发病风险最高（RR=1.14，95% CI：0.67～1.94）。相对湿度>95%时，随着相对湿度增加，手足口病发病风险逐渐增加，滞后时间分布在0～10 d，以第4、5天最为明显，相对湿度为100%滞后5 d时发病风险最高（RR=1.32，95% CI：1.02～1.71）。>28℃和<8℃时对手足口病发病都是危险因素，但滞后时间不一致，低温时滞后15～20 d相对危险度最高，而高温时滞后时间主要分布在5～15 d，以日平均气温28℃滞后4 d发病风险最高（RR=1.10，95% CI：0.94～1.29）。日照时数较长时（>12 h）滞后0～3 d对手足口病发病呈现危险性，其中日照均数13 h滞后0 d发病风险最大（RR=1.20，95% CI：1.05～1.36）。结论 日平均本站气压、日平均相对湿度、日平均气温、日照时数等气象因素与厦门市手足口病发病相关，且具有一定的滞后性，可以考虑纳入手足口病预警预测体系。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xiamen, Fujian province, and provide scientific evidence for the early warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Correlation analysis and distribution lag nonlinear models (DLNM) analysis of meteorological factors such as daily average pressure, daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours and the incidence of HFMD in Xiamen during 2013 to 2017 were conducted by using R3.4.3 software. Results A total of 36 464 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen during 2013-2017, and the incidence showed an upward trend (F=40.359, P=0.008). The daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r>0), and the daily average site pressure was negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r<0). In the case of a lag of 0-5 days, when the daily average pressure of the station was higher than 1 005 hPa, the risk of HFMD gradually increased with the increase of air pressure, and the risk of disease decreased with the increase of lag days. The risk was highest when air pressure was 1 017 hPa and at the lag of 0 day (RR=1.14, 95%CI:0.67-1.94). When the relative humidity was higher than 95%, the risk of HFMD gradually increased with the increase of relative humidity, and the lag time ranged from 0 day to 10 days, which was most obvious on the 4th and 5th days. The risk was highest when relative humidity was 100% and at the lag of 5 days (RR=1.32, 95%CI:1.02-1.71). When the air temperature was >28℃ and <8℃, the risk of HFMD existed, but the lag time was inconsistent. The relative risk was highest during 15-20 days at low air temperature, and the lag time at high air temperature was mainly during 5-15 days. The risk was highest when air temperature was 28℃ and at the lag of 4 days (RR=1.10, 95%CI:0.94-1.29). The sunshine time was >12 h and lag of 0-3 days was a risk factor for the incidence of HFMD. The risk was highest when sunshine time was 13 h and the lag of 0 day (RR=1.20, 95%CI:1.05-1.36). Conclusion Meteorological factors such as daily average pressure, daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours were associated with the incidence of HFMD with certain lag in Xiamen. So, it is suggested to use these data in the early warning system of HFMD. |
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