文章摘要
纪炀,樊正伟,赵国平,陈津津,姚宏武,李新楼,王绎行,马麦卷,孙宇,方立群.中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统的建立[J].中华流行病学杂志,2019,40(6):719-725
中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统的建立
Establishment of Geographic Information System on risk assessment regarding infectious diseases imported to China
投稿时间:2019-02-12  
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.06.022
中文关键词: 输入传染病;自然疫源地;地理信息系统;风险评估
英文关键词: Imported infectious diseases;Natural foci;Geographic Information System;Risk assessment
基金项目:生物安全重点研发计划(2016YFC1201300);传染病重大专项(2018ZX10201001,2017ZX10303401,2018ZX10101003-002)
作者单位E-mail
纪炀 安徽医科大学, 合肥 230022
军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071 
 
樊正伟 军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071  
赵国平 军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071  
陈津津 安徽医科大学, 合肥 230022
军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071 
 
姚宏武 军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071  
李新楼 军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071  
王绎行 军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071  
马麦卷 军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071  
孙宇 清华大学出版社, 北京 100084  
方立群 安徽医科大学, 合肥 230022
军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所, 北京 100071 
fang_lq@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      目的 建立地理信息应用系统分析全球各地域主要传染病的时空分布及其输入传播风险,为境外传染病输入传播风险的评估与防控提供基础信息和决策依据。方法 系统收集全球2000年以来重要传染病流行及暴发疫情信息、中国大陆2014-2016年入境人群的传染病主动监测信息、全球国际航班及客流量信息、人口与环境等多源信息,基于地理信息系统技术建立全球重要传染病疫情时空分布数据库,集成时空分析、概率风险评估等模型与地理信息可视化技术建立中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统。结果 中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统集成全球220个国家和地区60种重要传染病分布及暴发疫情信息以及42种入境传染病主动监测数据,系统集成的时空分析模型可用于快速评估全球各区域主要传染病的种类及其潜在威胁,并展示各省份入境人群的传染病输入感染特征与疾病负担,概率风险评估模型能够模拟评估全球不同区域出现传染病暴发疫情后经航空途径输入我国各区域的风险。结论 中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统为境外传染病的流行病学侦察与输入传播风险评估提供基础数据,将有助于我国境外输入传染病的监测与防控。
英文摘要:
      Objectives To establish a geographic information application system for analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of major infectious diseases in various regions of the world and to assess the risk of importation of those diseases, to China. Methods We collected and integrated the following information on:1) outbreaks and areas of epidemics of major infectious diseases in the world from 2000 to 2017, 2) cases of infectious diseases in arriving travelers through active surveillance at international entry-exit ports in mainland China from 2014 to 2016, 3) numbers of annual global international flights and travelers in the country. With the above information, a global space-time distribution database on major infectious diseases was then established, using the technology related to the system. Models regarding technologies on time-space analysis, probabilistic risk assessment and geographic information visualization, were applied to establish a geographic information system on risk assessment of infectious diseases that imported to China. Results Through integration of information on outbreaks and epidemic areas of 60 major infectious diseases in 220 countries and regions around the world, as well as 42 kinds of infectious diseases identified among the international arrivals in mainland China, a system was then developed. Information on the distribution of major infectious diseases and their potential risks in the worldwide various regions, characteristics of spectrum and disease burden of infectious diseases imported to each province of mainland China were displayed. Thus, risks on importing infectious diseases in each province via air way were able to be evaluated and simulated by the probabilistic risk assessment model, under the information on specific kind of infectious disease, outside China. Conclusion Geographic Information System on Risk Assessment Regarding Infectious Diseases Imported to China provides basic data for epidemiological reconnaissance and assessment on risks of importing infectious diseases outside China, thus would be helpful for the improvement of strategies on surveillance, prevention and control regarding the importing infectious diseases, in China.
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