文章摘要
赵媛,郭忠琴,赵建华,梁沛枫.宁夏回族自治区2012-2018年人间布鲁氏菌病发病时空分布及与家畜存栏数的相关性研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(6):872-876
宁夏回族自治区2012-2018年人间布鲁氏菌病发病时空分布及与家畜存栏数的相关性研究
Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis and its correlation with the number of livestock in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, 2012-2018
收稿日期:2019-09-25  出版日期:2020-06-16
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20190925-00701
中文关键词: 布鲁氏菌病;地理信息系统;空间自相关分析;空间聚集性
英文关键词: Brucellosis;Geographic information system;Spatial autocorrelation analysis;Spatial aggregation
基金项目:宁夏自然科学基金(NZ17187);西北民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(31920180088)
作者单位E-mail
赵媛 宁夏医科大学公共卫生与管理学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 银川 750001  
郭忠琴 宁夏医科大学公共卫生与管理学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 银川 750001  
赵建华 宁夏回族自治区疾病预防控制中心, 银川 750001  
梁沛枫 宁夏回族自治区人民医院病案统计科, 银川 750004 doctor_pf@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析2012-2018年宁夏回族自治区(宁夏)人间布鲁氏菌病(布病)发病的时空分布特征及与家畜存栏数的相关性,为采取相应的防制措施提供参考依据。方法 收集2012-2018年宁夏回族自治区传染病报告信息管理系统中布病发病数资料,应用地理信息系统(ArcGIS)采用全局空间自相关、局部空间自相关分析方法对宁夏各县(区)2012-2018年布病发病率数据的分布进行分析,运用SPSS 23.0软件对布病发病率与牛、羊、猪存栏数进行Spearman相关性分析。结果 2012-2018年,宁夏布病发病率整体表现为上升。在2012-2015年为逐年增长,但从2015-2018年,则呈现为较小幅度的下降。全局自相关分析中,2012、2013以及2016年宁夏各县(区)布病呈非随机分布,Moran’s I值均为正值,说明呈空间正相关分布。在局部自相关分析中,高-高聚集(H-H)地区主要集中在宁夏中部,低-低聚集(L-L)地区主要在宁夏北部。在布病与主要牲畜存栏数的相关分析中,发现布病发病率与羊存栏数存在正相关关系(r=0.692,P=0.000)。结论 布病发病存在不同程度的聚集性,发病率高的地区多集中在宁夏中部,且与羊存栏数具有一定的相关关系,因此对于不同的聚集状况应采取相应措施进行控制并且应加大对羊群的检疫与免疫。
英文摘要:
      Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of human brucellosis (HB) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (Ningxia) from 2012 to 2018 and the correlation between HB and the number of livestock stocks, so as to provide reference for the development of preventive measures. Methods Data on the incidence of HB was collected from the Infectious Disease Report Information Management System of Ningxia, 2012 to 2018. Data related to HB incidence in Ningxia from 2012 to 2018 was then analyzed by global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation analysis methods through the geographic information system (GIS). SPSS (23.0) Spearman correlation was used to analyze the correlation between the incidence of HB and the number of cattle, sheep and pigs. Results From 2012 to 2018, the incidence of HB showed an overall increase in Ningxia, with an annual growth in 2012-2015 but declined between 2015 and 2018. Results from the global autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of HB in the counties and districts of Ningxia appeared non-randomly, with Moran’s I value as positive in 2012, 2013 and 2016 indicating the distribution was positive in space. Through local autocorrelation analysis, results showed that “H-H” concentration area was mainly concentrated in central while the “L-L” concentration area was mainly in the northern part of Ningxia. As for the results from correlation analysis between HB and animal husbandry, it showed that the incidence of HB was positively correlated with the number of sheep in stock (r=0.692, P=0.000). Conclusions The epidemic situation of HB expressed different degrees of aggregation. Areas with high incidence were mostly concentrated in central Ningxia, and with certain degree of correlation with the number of sheep in stock. Corresponding measures should be taken to control the different aggregation situation. Programs on quarantine and immunization for sheep should also be strengthened.
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