| 张婷,吴洪涛,王凌航,杨维中.基于情景模拟的新型冠状病毒肺炎医疗资源需求快速评估研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1390-1395 |
| 基于情景模拟的新型冠状病毒肺炎医疗资源需求快速评估研究 |
| Scenario-based study of medical resource requirement rapid assessment under the COVID-19 pandemic |
| 收稿日期:2020-04-01 出版日期:2020-09-18 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200401-00488 |
| 中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 医疗资源需求 大流行应对准备 传播动力学模型 |
| 英文关键词: COVID-19 Medical resources demand Pandemic preparedness Transmission dynamics models |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（71904103）；北京市社会科学基金（18JDGLB008）；中国博士后科学基金（2018M641400） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情仍处于全球大流行阶段，我国面临着境外输入和境内反弹的双重风险，迫切需要开展医疗资源的准备工作。方法 本研究基于对疾病的现有认识，假设5种局部地区发生疫情的情景，分别使用传染病传播动力学模型和大流行理论静态模型进行医疗资源需求评估。结果 不同流行强度和防控策略的情景下医疗资源需求差别较大，积极防控策略和有效措施能够显著降低医疗资源需求。疫情快速上升期，防控策略的成本及专业应对能力要求迅速增加，医疗资源需求激增的风险大。结论 不同经济发展水平、人口规模和防控能力的地区，均应尽快开展应急状态下医疗资源需求评估，提前为可能出现的疫情反弹和暴发做好医疗资源准备。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective COVID-19 outbreak is still under global pandemic. China is facing the risks of importation and local rebound of COVID-19. Under the circumstances, preparations for medical resources are in urgently needed. Methods Based on current understanding of the disease, we set up five scenarios and use the infectious disease transmission dynamic and pandemic theoretical static models to evaluate the demand for medical resources. Results Different epidemic strength and strategies of disease control and prevention resulted in different levels of medical resource request, and active control strategy and effective measures could significantly decrease the requirement. During the epidemic rising phase, the cost of prevention and control measures and the requirement of professional response capacities would increase with potential high risk of medical resource demand sharply increasing. Conclusion Regions with different economic level, population scale, and different prevention and control capabilities should all initiate scientific assessment of medical resource requirement under emergency response and prepare for possible future rebound and epidemic. |
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