| 吴文静,杨晓翠,姚明宏,吴功华,徐嘉悦,赵星,张菊英.京津冀地区长期PM2.5暴露的死亡负担与经济损失评价[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1471-1476 |
| 京津冀地区长期PM2.5暴露的死亡负担与经济损失评价 |
| Assessment of mortality burden and economic loss attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area |
| 收稿日期:2019-12-05 出版日期:2020-09-18 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20191205-00865 |
| 中文关键词: PM2.5 全球-暴露死亡模型 死亡负担 经济损失 |
| 英文关键词: PM2.5 Global exposure mortality model Mortality burden Economic loss |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（81773548，81973151）；四川省科技计划（2018JY0352）；四川省软科学研究计划（2018ZR0007） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 精确估计2015年京津冀地区长期PM2.5暴露的死亡负担及其经济损失。方法 选取美国国家航空航天局（NASA）提供的遥感PM2.5数据与人口数据，空间分辨率为1 km×1 km，基于全球-暴露死亡模型评估2015年京津冀地区PM2.5长期暴露的归因死亡人数，并利用统计寿命价值法估计其对应的健康经济损失。结果 2012－2014年京津冀地区3年平均PM2.5浓度为46.25 μg/m3，平均有56.6%的人口居住在年均PM2.5浓度超过国家二级空气质量标准（35 μg/m3）的地区；2015年京津冀地区归因于PM2.5长期暴露的早死人数为19.38（95% CI：14.09~23.33）万人，其中排名前5的城市分别为北京市、天津市、保定市、石家庄市和邯郸市；京津冀地区健康经济损失总计359.34（95% CI：260.99~432.55）亿元，占2015年该地区生产总值的0.70%（95% CI：0.51%~0.85%），其中排名前5的城市分别为北京市、天津市、保定市、石家庄市和沧州市。结论 PM2.5污染造成了严重的疾病与经济负担，其空间分布提示针对重点城市的污染防控政策显得尤为必要。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To accurately estimate the health burden and corresponding economic loss attributed to PM2.5 pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) area in China in 2015. Method By using satellite-retrieved PM2.5 concentration data and population data provided by NASA (the spatial resolution was 1 km×1 km), this study estimated excess mortality attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure in BTH area in 2015 based on Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Besides, Value of Statistic Life (VSL) method was used to evaluate the corresponding health economic loss. Result In BTH area, the population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration during 2012-2014 was 46.25 μg/m3, and 56.6% of total population lived in the area where annual average PM2.5 concentration exceeded Grade Ⅱ of National Ambient Air Quality Standard in China (35 μg/m3); The PM2.5-related premature deaths amounted to 193.8 thousand (95% CI: 140.9 thousand-233.3 thousand), Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and Handan were the top five cities with high incidences of PM2.5-related premature deaths; The corresponding health economic loss was about 35.934 billion (95% CI: 26.099 billion - 43.255 billion) RMB, accounting for 0.70% (95% CI: 0.51%-0.85%) of the area's GDP in 2015, Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and Cangzhou were the top five cities with high health economic loss. Conclusions PM2.5 pollution has caused severe disease and economic burden in BTH area. Its spatial distribution suggested that it is particularly necessary to develop the air pollution prevention and control policies for key cities. |
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