文章摘要
王薇,殷鹏,王黎君,刘韫宁,刘江美,齐金蕾,由金玲,林琳,周脉耕.2005-2018年中国分省死亡率及期望寿命分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(8):1420-1428
2005-2018年中国分省死亡率及期望寿命分析
Analysis on all-cause mortality rate and life expectancy in China, 2005-2018
收稿日期:2020-08-15  出版日期:2021-08-19
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200825-01095
中文关键词: 死亡率;期望寿命;死亡数变化分解;地区差异;变化趋势
英文关键词: All-cause mortality rate;Life expectancy;Decomposition of changes in deaths;Geographical variations;Temporal trends
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1315301)
作者单位E-mail
王薇 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
殷鹏 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
王黎君 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
刘韫宁 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
刘江美 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
齐金蕾 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
由金玲 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
林琳 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050  
周脉耕 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050 zhoumaigeng@ncncd.chinacdc.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 掌握2005-2018年全国及分省死亡率及期望寿命现状分布及变化情况。方法 利用全国人口死亡信息登记管理系统死因监测数据、全国妇幼卫生监测数据、全国死因监测漏报调查数据及社会决定因素相关协变量数据,对2005-2018年全国及分省居民死亡率及期望寿命进行估计,描述全国及分省死亡率和期望寿命差异及变化趋势。采用死亡数变化分解方法,分析年龄别死亡率、人口老龄化及人口增长原因对全国及分省总死亡数变化的贡献程度。结果 2018年,我国居民估计死亡数为10 482 297(95%CI:9 723 233~11 466 875)人,男性6 113 926(95%CI:5 773 158~6 572 407)人,女性4 368 241(95%CI:3 950 075~4 894 468)人;死亡率为755.54/10万(95%CI:701.49/10万~825.78/10万),男性861.78/10万(95%CI:813.75/10万~926.40/10万),女性642.73/10万(95%CI:581.20/10万~720.15/10万);标化死亡率为652.27/10万(95%CI:599.22/10万~721.71/10万),男性806.38/10万(95%CI:755.10/10万~874.31/10万),女性503.37/10万(95%CI:450.50/10万~572.01/10万)。2018年,全国人均期望寿命为77.15(95%CI:75.92~78.11)岁,男性74.81(95%CI:73.57~75.76)岁,女性79.87(95%CI:78.61~80.91)岁。期望寿命较高的省份有上海市、北京市、江苏省、浙江省等发达省份,较低的有西藏自治区、贵州省、新疆维吾尔自治区和青海省等欠发达省份。2005-2018年,全国死亡数共增长29.87%,男性27.74%,女性31.29%;其中,年龄别死亡率原因占比-35.74%,人口增长原因占比7.34%,人口老龄化原因占比58.28%。结论 2005-2018年,我国居民估计死亡率呈上升趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势,人口老龄化为其主要原因。期望寿命涨幅较明显,但省际间差异大。
英文摘要:
      Objective To understand the geographical variations and temporal trends of all-cause mortality rate and life expectancy in China at national and subnational levels during 2005-2018. Methods Using data from National Cause-of-death Reporting System, China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System, Under-reporting Surveys, and related social determinants covariates, we estimated all-cause mortality rate and life expectancy at national and subnational levels in China during 2005-2018. We depicted the geographical variations and temporal trends between provinces on mortality rate and life expectancy. We then decomposed changes in national and subnational deaths into three explanatory components:change due to age-specific mortality rate, change due to the population structure by age, and change due to growth of the total population. Results In 2018, it was estimated that there were 10 482 297 total deaths (95%CI:9 723 233-11 466 875 deaths) in China, with 6 113 926 men (95%CI:5 773 158-6 572 407 men) and 4 368 241 women (95%CI:3 950 075-4 894 468 women). The all-cause mortality rate was 755.54 per 100 000 (95%CI:701.49 per 100 000-825.78 per 100 000), with 861.78 per 100 000 (95%CI:813.75 per 100 000-926.40 per 100 000) in men and 642.73 per 100 000 (95%CI:581.20 per 100 000-720.15 per 100 000) in women, while age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was 652.27 per 100 000 (95%CI:599.22 per 100 000-721.71 per 100 000), with 806.38 per 100 000 (95%CI:755.10 per 100 000-874.31 per 100 000) in men and 503.37 per 100 000 (95%CI:450.50 per 100 000-572.01 per 100 000) in women. In 2018, it was estimated that the life expectancy in the whole country was 77.15 years old (95%CI:75.92-78.11 years old), with 74.81 (95%CI: 73.57-75.76) in men and 79.87 (95%CI:78.61-80.91) in women. Developed areas as Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang owned comparatively higher life expectancy, while undeveloped areas like Tibet, Guizhou, Xinjiang, and Qinghai showed lower levels. During 2005-2018, there was a 29.87% increase in total deaths at the national level, with 27.74% in men and 31.29% in women. Changes due to age-specific mortality rate, the population structure by age, and the growth of the total population constituted -35.74%, 7.34%, and 58.28% of the total increase, respectively. Conclusions From 2005 to 2018, the all-cause mortality rate increased while the age-standardized mortality rate decreased substantially among Chinese residents. Change due to population structure by age was the dominant driver. An upward trend of life expectancy was observed in all provinces, with marked differences between the provinces.
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