文章摘要
罗业飞,杜瑶瑶,徐慧芳,陈韵聪,古羽舟,蔡衍珊,韩志刚,何蔚云,姚芷潞,梁清儿,刘方华,樊莉蕊.应用德尔菲法构建青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(11):1918-1922
应用德尔菲法构建青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系
Development of Risk Assessment Index System on HIV infection among young students based on Delphi method
收稿日期:2021-01-14  出版日期:2021-11-20
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210114-00038
中文关键词: 艾滋病病毒;风险评估;德尔菲法;青年学生
英文关键词: HIV;Risk assessment;Delphi method;Young students
基金项目:国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10715004);国家自然科学基金(71774178,71974212);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2020A1515010737);广州市科技计划(201607010368);广州市卫生健康科技项目(20191A010042,20201A011053,20211A011056,20211A011049)
作者单位E-mail
罗业飞 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
杜瑶瑶 中山大学公共卫生学院, 广州 510080  
徐慧芳 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440
广东省性病艾滋病防治协会, 广州 511430 
 
陈韵聪 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
古羽舟 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
蔡衍珊 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
韩志刚 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
何蔚云 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
姚芷潞 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440
广东省性病艾滋病防治协会, 广州 511430 
 
梁清儿 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
刘方华 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440  
樊莉蕊 广州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病预防控制部 510440 gzcdc_fanlr@gz.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 构建青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系,为评估个体HIV感染风险和制定针对性防控措施提供参考依据。方法 应用德尔菲法,选择19位专家经过3轮专家咨询,根据指标筛选标准并综合考虑专家建议,确定评估指标体系及其权重。结果 3轮专家咨询的积极系数均为100%;专家的权威系数在0.887~0.945之间,协调系数(肯德尔和谐系数,Kendall's W)分别为0.379、0.329和0.248(均P<0.001),第3轮各项指标变异系数均<0.25,专家意见趋于一致,研究结果可靠性高。建立了7个一级指标和54个二级指标构成的青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系及相应权重。结论 应用德尔菲法建立青年学生HIV感染风险评估指标体系,可用于开发青年学生HIV感染风险评估工具,进行个性化的预防干预,但其信度和效度及应用效果还需进一步的评估。
英文摘要:
      Objective To develop a Risk Assessment Index System (RAIS) on HIV infection among young students based on Delphi method and to provide individual HIV infection risk assessment, targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Delphi method was applied to determine the index system and weight of the assessment tool through three rounds of expert consultation and overall consideration of opinions and suggestions from 19 experts. Results The positivity coefficients of three rounds of expert consultation were 100%. The authority coefficient of experts was between 0.887 and 0.945. The Kendall's W coefficients through first, second and third round specialist consultation was 0.379, 0.329 and 0.248, respectively (all P<0.001). The coefficients of variation in the third round were all less than 0.25, indicating that experts' opinion tend to be consistent and the results are highly reliable. The HIV infection risk assessment index system among young students consisted of 7 first grade indices and 54 second grade indices, of which weight was calculated. Conclusions The RAIS on HIV infection for young students was initially established based on Delphi method, and could be used in the development of HIV infection risk assessment tools for personalized prevention and intervention among young students. However, the reliability, validity and effect of this assessment index system need to be further evaluated.
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