| 张蓉,张宁,凌锋,刘营,郭颂,施旭光,任江萍,孙继民.浙江省2005-2020年肾综合征出血热流行趋势分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(11):2030-2036 |
| 浙江省2005-2020年肾综合征出血热流行趋势分析 |
| Study on epidemic trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang province, 2005-2020 |
| 收稿日期:2021-05-28 出版日期:2021-11-20 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210528-00435 |
| 中文关键词: 肾综合征出血热 全局自相关 局部自相关 时空聚集 |
| 英文关键词: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome Global autocorrelation Local autocorrelation Spatiotemporal clustering |
| 基金项目:浙江省医药卫生面上项目（2019KY358） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 了解浙江省2005-2020年肾综合征出血热（HFRS）流行特征和时空分布特征，为其精准防控提供科学依据。方法 从中国疾病预防控制传染病报告信息管理系统获取疫情数据，通过描述性研究了解浙江省HFRS的三间分布特征；采用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行全局自相关和局部自相关分析；采用SaTScan 9.4.4软件进行时空聚集区扫描分析，ArcGIS 10.2软件完成疾病时空分布的可视化。结果 浙江省2005-2020年共报告7 724例HFRS病例，其中死亡25例。每年有2个发病高峰，分别在5-6月（春末夏初）和11月至次年1月（冬季）。累计病例在前三位的地市分别是宁波市24.27%（1 875/7 724）、台州市21.25%（1 642/7 724）和绍兴市14.54%（1 123/7 724）。男女性别比为2.73：1（5 656：2 068）。病例主要以中老年为主，41~70岁的病例占60.95%。职业主要是农民，占69.89%（5 398/7 724）。大多数年份HFRS的空间分布存在相关性，回顾性时空扫描结果显示，探测到3个聚集区：一类聚集区集中在浙江省东部和中部地区的21个县（市、区），其中宁波市、绍兴市和金华市各有4个县（市、区）、台州市8个县（市、区）和丽水市1个县（RR=13.69，LLR=5 522.60，P<0.001）；二类聚集区集中在浙江省西部地区丽水市的龙泉市和庆元县（RR=31.20，LLR=1 232.46，P<0.001）；三类聚集区集中在浙江省北部地区湖州市的长兴县和安吉县（RR=3.42，LLR=23.93，P<0.001）。结论 2005-2020年浙江省HFRS病例以中老年、男性和农民为主，在春末夏初和冬季的东部地区疫情高发，建议重点地区在流行季节来临前针对重点人群采取精准防控措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2020, and provide scientific information for the precise prevention and control of HFRS. Methods Data on HFRS cases in Zhejiang province during 2005-2020 were collected from the China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System (NNDS) for a descriptive analysis, and software ArcGIS 10.2 was used for global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation analyses. Spatiotemporal clusters were scanned with SaTScan 9.4.4 and visualized with ArcGIS 10.2. Results A total of 7 724 HFRS cases were reported in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2020, including 25 deaths. There were two incidence peaks each year, in late spring and early summer (May-June) and in winter (November-January). The top three areas with high cumulative cases were Ningbo (1 875, 24.27%), Taizhou (1 642, 21.25%), and Shaoxing (1 123, 14.54%). Among the reported cases, with a male to female ratio of 2.73:1(5 656:2 068). The majority of HFRS cases were middle-aged and elderly people, with cases aged 41-70 years accounting for 60.95%. Most HFRS cases were farmers, accounting for 69.89% (5 398/7 724). The spatial distribution of HFRS in most years was correlated. SaTScan was used for retrospective spatiotemporal scanning and three clusters were detected:the first type clusters were in 21 counties in eastern Zhejiang province and central Zhejiang province, among which 4 were in Ningbo, Shaoxing and Jinhua, 8 were in Taizhou, and 1 was in Lishui (RR=13.69, LLR=5 522.60, P<0.001); the second type clusters were in Longquan and Qingyuan counties (RR=31.20, LLR=1 232.46, P<0.001); the third types of clusters were in Changxing and Anji counties of Huzhou in northern Zhejiang province (RR=3.42, LLR=23.93, P<0.001). Conclusions HFRS mainly occurred in middle-aged,elderly and male farmers in Zhejiang province. The incidence was high in late spring, early summer and winter in eastern Zhejiang province. Precise prevention and control measures are needed for populations at high risk before the epidemic season. |
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