| 洪航,方挺,易波,许国章.宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情动态清零精准防控策略和措施效果评价[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(5):669-673 |
| 宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情动态清零精准防控策略和措施效果评价 |
| Effectiveness of precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province |
| 收稿日期:2022-02-08 出版日期:2022-05-13 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220208-00100 |
| 中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 传染病动力学模型 预测 效果评估 |
| 英文关键词: COVID-19 Transmission dynamics model Predict Effectiveness of prevention and control |
| 基金项目:宁波市"科技创新2025"重大专项(2021Z021);宁波市医疗卫生品牌学科(PPXK2018-10);浙江省医学重点学科(07-013);宁波市应急科技攻关重大专项(2022Z034) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 对宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情动态清零精准防控策略和措施效果进行评价。方法 根据2021年12月宁波市报告的COVID-19确诊病例和个案流行病学调查报告绘制流行曲线，建立传播动力学模型，预测不同干预措施下的累计确诊病例数，计算基本再生数（R0）和实时再生数（Rt）评估干预措施效果。结果 截至2021年12月17日，宁波市累计确诊COVID-19共74例，估算R0为4.3。随着防控措施的加强，Rt呈逐渐下降趋势，至12月11日下降到1.0以下，之后持续下降到12月14日的0.4。模型拟合结果显示，实际累计确诊病例数接近政策干预有效性为90%的估计病例数（76例），与不采取任何干预措施比较病例数减少98.4%。结论 宁波市开展的COVID-19动态清零精准防控策略和措施效果明显，可以短时间内控制疫情流行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To evaluate effectiveness of the precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province. Methods Based on the incidence data of COVID-19 and case epidemiological survey report in Ningbo in December 2021, the incidence curve of COVID-19 was generated and a dynamics model was developed to estimate the case number of under different intervention measures. The basic reproduction number (R0) and real-time reproduction number (Rt) were calculated to evaluate intervention effect. Results A total of 74 cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Ningbo as of 17 December, 2021. The R0 was estimated to be 4.3. With the strengthening of prevention and control measures, the Rt showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on December 11 and 0.4 on December 14. The model fitting results showed that the actual case number was close to the estimated case number (76 cases) when the effectiveness of intervention was 90%. The number of cases decreased by 98.4% compared with that if no intervention was taken. Conclusion The precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 have obvious effect, which can facilitate the rapid control of COVID-19 epidemic in Ningbo. |
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