| 张梦鸽,周雅冰,李传苍,屈梦冰,孟晶婧,蔡倩,范浩浩,孙亮.2010-2019年中国人群主要伤害死亡水平与变化趋势[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(6):871-877 |
| 2010-2019年中国人群主要伤害死亡水平与变化趋势 |
| Levels and trends of significant injury-caused deaths in the Chinese population, 2010-2019 |
| 收稿日期:2022-01-08 出版日期:2022-06-16 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220108-00015 |
| 中文关键词: 伤害 死亡水平 趋势分析 |
| 英文关键词: Injury Mortality level Trend analysis |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2010-2019年中国人群主要伤害死亡水平和变化趋势，为伤害干预工作的开展提供依据。方法 收集2010-2019年全国疾病监测地区主要伤害死亡数据，通过计算4种主要伤害粗死亡率和标化死亡率来描述主要伤害死亡状况，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析标化死亡率变化趋势。结果 2010-2019年伤害标化死亡率总体呈持续下降趋势（AAPC=-3.5%，P<0.001），意外跌落标化死亡率总体呈上升趋势（AAPC=1.0%，P=0.104）。主要伤害死亡率随年龄增长呈波动上升趋势，50~79岁人群意外跌落标化死亡率呈上升趋势（50~岁组AAPC=3.9%，60~岁组AAPC=5.6%，70~岁组AAPC=4.6%，均P<0.001）。男性主要伤害标化死亡率均高于女性，男性道路交通事故和溺水下降速度较女性更快（男性道路交通事故组AAPC=-5.3%，女性道路交通事故组AAPC=-3.8%；男性溺水组AAPC=-4.0%，女性溺水组AAPC=-3.5%，均P<0.001），女性自杀及后遗症下降速度较男性更快（女性AAPC=-6.4%，男性AAPC=-4.7%，均P<0.001）。农村主要伤害标化死亡率高于城市且降速超过城市。中部地区自杀及后遗症标化死亡率最高，西部地区道路交通事故、意外跌落和溺水标化死亡率最高，道路交通事故和溺水下降速度最快（道路交通事故组AAPC=-5.3%，溺水组AAPC=-5.3%，均P<0.001）。结论 2010-2019年中国人群主要伤害死亡率呈持续下降趋势，近年来意外跌落标化死亡率有回升趋势，老年人、男性、农村居民和中、西部地区是未来防控的重点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the level and changing trend of significant injury-caused deaths in the Chinese population from 2010 to 2019 and provide evidence for related intervention.Methods Data on notable injury-caused deaths in areas under National Disease Surveillance Programs were collected from 2010 to 2019. Crude and standardized mortality rates of four significant injuries were calculated to describe the status of injury-caused deaths. The trend of changes in standardized mortality rates was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model.Results The overall trend of standardized mortality rate on an injury during 2010-2019 was consistently decreasing (AAPC=-3.5%, P<0.001) while the general direction of accidental fall standardized mortality rate was increasing (AAPC=1.0%, P=0.104). The standardized mortality rate for significant injuries fluctuated with age, increasing for those aged 50-79 years (AAPC=3.9% for the 50-group, AAPC=5.6% for the 60-group, and AAPC=4.6% for the 70-group, all P<0.001). The standardized mortality rates for all major injuries were higher in males than those in females, with road traffic accidents and drowning declining faster in males than that in females (AAPC=-5.3% in the male road traffic accident group, AAPC=-3.8% in the female road traffic accident group, AAPC=-4.0% in the male drowning group, AAPC=-3.5% in the female drowning group, all P<0.001), and suicide and sequelae declining faster in females than that in males (AAPC=-6.4% in female, AAPC=-4.7% in male, all P<0.001). The standardized mortality rate for significant injuries was higher in rural than that in urban areas and decreased faster than that in urban areas. The central region had the highest standardized mortality rate for suicide and sequelae. The western part had the highest standardized mortality rates for road traffic accidents, accidental falls, and drowning, with the fastest decline in road traffic accidents and drowning (AAPC=-5.3% in the road traffic accident group and AAPC=-5.3% in the drowning group, both P<0.001). Conclusions The mortality rate from significant injuries in the Chinese population showed a continuous downward trend from 2010 to 2019, with a rebound in the standardized mortality rate from accidental falls in recent years among the elderly, males, rural residents, and central and western regions being the focus of future prevention and control. |
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