| 周芳静,吴惠忠,李建伟,冯慧莹,黄珊珊,陈亮,廖庆华,温文沛.广东省2016-2020年肺结核流行特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(10):1568-1574 |
| 广东省2016-2020年肺结核流行特征分析 |
| Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guangdong province from 2016 to 2020 |
| 收稿日期:2022-01-21 出版日期:2022-10-18 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220121-00059 |
| 中文关键词: 结核 肺 流行特征 圆形分布法 |
| 英文关键词: Tuberculosis Pulmonary Epidemiological characteristics Circular distribution methods |
| 基金项目:广东省医学科研基金（A2021155）；国家科技重大专项（2018ZX10715004-002） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2016-2020年广东省肺结核的流行特征，为制定适宜的结核病预防和控制策略提供参考依据。方法 描述性流行病学方法用于分析广东省2016-2020年肺结核疫情分布特征，采用动态几何数列平均法和圆形分布法揭示流行规律。结果 2016-2020年累计报告肺结核356 748例，报告发病率从71.82/10万下降至50.40/10万（趋势χ2=6 905.57，P < 0.001），年均递降率为8.47%。圆形分布法推测每年发病高峰为5月4-5日（Z=1 176.96，P < 0.05），高发月份为5月。广东省肺结核疫情地区间分布不均衡，年均报告发病率高低依次为粤东地区（72.15/10万）、粤北地区（68.14/10万）、粤西地区（65.31/10万）和珠三角地区（60.05/10万）。动态数列分析结果显示，除东莞市以外，其他城市的报告发病率均呈下降趋势（平均增长速度 < 0.00），粤东（-10.90%）和粤北地区（-10.63%）下降速度快于广东省平均水平（-8.47%）。男女性别比为2.63∶1（258 562∶98 186），年均报告发病率男性（88.37/10万）高于女性（36.86/10万），差异有统计学意义（χ2=75.19，P < 0.001）。报告发病率随年龄呈增长态势（趋势χ2=123 849.44，P < 0.001），≥65岁年龄组最高（164.54/10万）。动态数列分析结果显示，5~14岁和15~24岁年龄组报告发病率随时间呈上升趋势，平均增长速度分别为0.05%和3.60%。结论 2016-2020年广东省肺结核疫情呈下降趋势，而儿童、青少年等有上升趋势，应强化老年人等重点人群主动筛查，还需持续关注男性、低收入群体及经济欠发达地区，着力做好冬、春季节结核病综合防控工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Guangdong province from 2016 to 2020 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of pulmonary TB.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence data of pulmonary TB reported in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. Dynamic geometric series averaging and circular distribution methods were used to reveal the epidemic pattern.Results A total of 356 748 pulmonary TB cases were reported in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. The reported incidence of pulmonary TB decreased from 71.82/100 000 to 50.40/100 000 (trend χ2=6 905.57, P < 0.001), with an annual decline rate of 8.47%. Results from the circular distribution methods showed that the incidence peak would occur on May 4th-5th (Z=1 176.96, P < 0.05), and the incidence was relatively higher in May compared with other months. The area distribution of the pulmonary TB epidemic was uneven, and the reported average annual incidence was in the order of the eastern area (72.15/100 000), the northern area (68.14/100 000), the western area (65.31/100 000) and the Pearl River Delta area (60.05/100 000). Results of dynamic geometric series averaging analysis showed a declining trend in the reported incidence of pulmonary TB in all areas, except Dongguan, with the average growth rate less than 0.00. The decline rate in the eastern area (-10.90%) and northern area (-10.63%) was higher than the provincial average (-8.47%). The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.63:1 (258 562:98 186). The reported average annual pulmonary TB incidence in men (88.37/100 000) was higher than that in women (36.86/100 000), the difference was significant (χ2=75.19, P < 0.001). The reported incidence of pulmonary TB generally increased with age (trendχ2=123 849.44, P < 0.001), and reached peak in age group ≥ 65 years (164.54/100 000). Dynamic geometric series averaging analysis showed an increasing trend of the reported pulmonary TB incidence in age groups 5-14 years and 15-24 years, with the average growth rate of 0.05% and 3.60%.Conclusions The reported annual incidence of pulmonary TB showed a declining trend year by year in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. However, an increasing incidence was reported in children and adolescents. Active case finding should be strengthened in the elderly and other key populations. With comprehensive TB prevention and control measures, it is still necessary to pay attention to the prevention and control of pulmonary TB in men, low-income groups and less developed areas in Guangdong and strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control in winter and spring. |
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