| 郑飞,孙印旗,张海霞,张洪斌,何宝花,贾肇一,李琦.河北省2013-2022年百日咳流行特征及时空聚集性[J].中华流行病学杂志,2024,45(2):213-219 |
| 河北省2013-2022年百日咳流行特征及时空聚集性 |
| Epidemiological and spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of pertussis in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022 |
| 收稿日期:2023-08-11 出版日期:2024-02-20 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20230811-00064 |
| 中文关键词: 百日咳 流行特征 时空聚集性 |
| 英文关键词: Pertussis Epidemiological characteristic Spatial-temporal clustering |
| 基金项目:河北省医学科学研究课题计划（20210177） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 郑飞 | 华北理工大学公共卫生学院, 唐山 063210 | | | 孙印旗 | 河北省疾病预防控制中心, 河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室, 石家庄 050021 | | | 张海霞 | 河北省疾病预防控制中心, 河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室, 石家庄 050021 | | | 张洪斌 | 河北省疾病预防控制中心, 河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室, 石家庄 050021 | | | 何宝花 | 河北省疾病预防控制中心, 河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室, 石家庄 050021 | | | 贾肇一 | 河北省疾病预防控制中心, 河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室, 石家庄 050021 | | | 李琦 | 河北省疾病预防控制中心, 河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室, 石家庄 050021 | liqinew@126.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2013-2022年河北省百日咳流行特征及时空聚集性，为完善百日咳防控措施提供参考依据。方法 基于2013-2022年河北省报告的百日咳数据分析流行特征。应用ArcGIS 10.8 软件进行空间自相关分析以及环形地图制作；运用SaTScan 10.1软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 河北省2013-2022年累计报告百日咳6 715例，无死亡病例，年均报告发病率为0.90/10万。2013- 2019年发病率总体呈上升趋势，2020-2021年呈大幅下降趋势，但2022年呈骤增趋势。夏、秋两季为流行的高发季节，发病占比最高的年龄组为<1岁（48.67%），占比最低的年龄组为≥15岁（0.45%），以散居儿童为主（78.03%），男性发病率高于女性。空间自相关分析表明，百日咳的发病具有空间聚集性，并且高-高聚集区存在于报告发病率前3位的廊坊市、保定市和沧州市。低-低聚集区与本研究对应疾病低发地区的分布基本一致。时空扫描探测出5个差异有统计学意义的区域，并且有3个聚集区集中在2022年。结论 河北省2013-2022年百日咳发病具有明显的人群、地区、季节差异，且存在明显的时空聚集性，须加强对重点区域的监测并采取针对性防治措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal epidemiological characteristics of pertussis from 2013 to 2022 in Hebei Province and to provide a reference for improving prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the data of pertussis reported in Hebei Province during 2013-2022 to analyze the popular characteristic, the ArcGIS 10.8 software was used to construct a ring map and to perform spatial autocorrelation analysis; the SaTScan 10.1 software was used for spatial-temporal scan statistics. Results There were 6 715 cases of the cumulative report in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022 without death. The annual report incidence was 0.90/100 000. The overall incidence rate showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2019, and during 2020-2021, it showed a sharp decline, but in 2022, it showed a sharp increase. Summer and autumn are the peak seasons of the epidemic. The incidence was highest in age group <1 year (48.67%), and the lowest age group in age group ≥15 years (0.45%) and mainly scattered children (78.03%); the incidence about men is higher than women. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the onset of pertussis has spatial clustering, and high-high clusters were found in Langfang, Baoding, and Cangzhou, the top three countries with reported incidence. The area covered by a low-low cluster was consistent with the distribution of the corresponding low-incidence areas in this study. Space-time scan detects five statistically significant areas, and three zones were concentrated in 2022. Conclusions The incidence of pertussis in Hebei had obvious season, population, and area-specific differences. There was obvious spatiotemporal and clustering, so the control of key areas should target the characteristics of time and space. |
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