| 蔡丹,张佳,刘家荣,杜昕蓉,付英斌,张振,吕秋莹.深圳市2014-2021年户籍人口死亡负担分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2024,45(8):1093-1102 |
| 深圳市2014-2021年户籍人口死亡负担分析 |
| Analysis of mortality burden among permanent residents in Shenzhen, 2014-2021 |
| 收稿日期:2024-04-18 出版日期:2024-08-22 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240418-00204 |
| 中文关键词: 死亡负担 早死寿命损失年 平均年变化百分比 |
| 英文关键词: Mortality burden Years of life lost Average annual percent change |
| 基金项目:深圳市科技创新委员会重点项目（JCYJ20210324115411030）；深圳市医学重点学科（SZXK064）；深圳市“医疗卫生三名工程”（SZSM202011008） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 了解2014-2021年深圳市户籍人口死亡负担，为制定疾病精准防治策略提供科学依据。方法 基于死因监测数据描述2014-2021年深圳市户籍人口及不同亚组中的死亡率、死因顺位及早死寿命损失年（YLL），以第七次全国人口普查数据作为标准人口计算标化率，采用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型描述死亡负担变化趋势。结果 2014-2021年深圳市户籍人口累计死亡49 734人，平均粗死亡率为140.90/10万，平均标化死亡率为366.77/10万；粗死亡率和标化死亡率均表现为2014-2016年波动上升［年变化百分比（APC）=20.72%，P=0.048；APC=28.59%，P=0.016］、2016-2021年波动下降（APC=-1.55%，P=0.317；APC=-1.89%，P=0.190）；<20和20~岁年龄组死亡率均随年份下降，其中<20岁年龄组下降有统计学意义［平均年变化百分比（AAPC）=-11.91%，P<0.001］，≥40岁各年龄组死亡率均随年份上升，其中≥80岁年龄组死亡率2014-2016年上升（APC=45.25%，P=0.016），2016-2021年下降（APC=-2.18%，P=0.280），其他年龄组死亡率变化无统计学意义（均P>0.05）；2014- 2021年深圳市户籍人口前3位死因相同，均为恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病，2021年的粗死亡率分别为49.59/10万、47.95/10万和7.90/10万；2014-2021年，YLL共计1 003 287.43人年，总人群、男性和女性YLL均呈上升趋势（均P<0.001）。结论 2014-2021年深圳市户籍人口老年人群死亡负担呈上升趋势，应进一步加强相关慢性非传染性疾病防治工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To investigate the mortality burden among permanent residents in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2021 and to provide scientific evidence for establishing precision disease prevention and control strategy. Methods Based on the cause-of-death surveillance data, we described the distribution of mortality rate, cause-specific rankings, and years of life lost (YLL) for the total population and subgroups in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2021. The seventh national population census data was used as the standard population to calculate the standardized mortality rate. Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the chronic trend of mortality burden. Results From 2014 to 2021, 49 734 deaths among the permanent population were recorded in Shenzhen, with a 140.90/100 000 average crude mortality rate, standardized as 366.77/100 000. Both the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate showed fluctuating increases from 2014 to 2016 [annual percent change (APC)=20.72%, P=0.048, APC=28.59%, P=0.016] and fluctuating decreases from 2016 to 2021 (APC=-1.55%, P=0.317, APC=-1.89%, P=0.190). The mortality rates of the <20 and 20- age groups decreased over time, with a statistically significant decrease observed in the <20 age group [average annual percent change (AAPC)=-11.91%, P<0.001]. The mortality rates of the 40-, 60-, and ≥80 age groups increased over time, with an increase observed in the ≥80 age group from 2014 to 2016 (APC=45.25%, P=0.016) and a decrease from 2016 to 2021 (APC=-2.18%, P=0.280). There was no statistical significance in the mortality rate trend for the remaining age groups (all P>0.05). The top three causes of death among permanent residents in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2021 were consistently malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and respiratory system diseases, with crude mortality rates of 49.59/100 000, 47.95/100 000, and 7.90/100 000 respectively in 2021. From 2014 to 2021, 1 003 287.43 YLL were observed, with YLL for the total population, males and females all showing an upward trend (all P<0.001). Conclusions The mortality burden among the elderly permanent residents in Shenzhen displayed a continuously increasing trend from 2014 to 2021. Strengthening the need for substantial efforts and actions to improve the prevention and control of chronic non-communicable diseases. |
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