| 梁妍,徐亚珂,樊盼英,聂玉刚,耿杰,施建春,张国龙,赵东阳.河南省1995-2020年新报告HIV/AIDS时空分布特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2024,45(12):1685-1692 |
| 河南省1995-2020年新报告HIV/AIDS时空分布特征分析 |
| Spatial-temporal distribution of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan Province, 1995-2020 |
| 收稿日期:2024-06-18 出版日期:2024-12-16 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240618-00359 |
| 中文关键词: 艾滋病病毒/艾滋病 时空分布 空间自相关 地理信息系统 |
| 英文关键词: HIV/AIDS Spatial-temporal distribution Spatial autocorrelation Geographic information system |
| 基金项目:河南省科技发展计划(202102310672,232102310258);河南省医学科技攻关计划(LHGJ20190697) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析河南省1995-2020年新报告HIV/AIDS的空间聚集性特征及其时间变化趋势，为艾滋病防控提供参考依据。方法 收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统1995-2020年河南省新报告HIV/AIDS信息，描述研究对象的特征及变化趋势，采用ArcGIS 10.2软件构建地理信息数据库并进行全局和局部空间自相关分析。结果 1995-2020年河南省新报告县（区）现住址信息完整的HIV/AIDS 96 528例，新报告病例数的全局Moran's I指数为0.249、全局Getis-Ord G系数的ZG值为6.472（均P<0.001），表明1995-2020年河南省新报告HIV/AIDS数存在高值聚集的正向空间自相关。1995-2000、2001-2005、2006-2010、2011-2015和2016-2020年河南省新报告HIV/AIDS数均存在高值聚集的空间聚集性，其全局Moran's I值分别为0.197、0.103、0.491、0.411和0.383，全局Getis-Ord G系数的ZG值分别为4.580、3.386、10.246、8.378和8.093，全局空间相关性有统计学意义（均P<0.001）。局部空间自相关分析结果显示，河南省新报告HIV/AIDS数在上述各时间段均存在高-高聚集区，高-高聚集区从2001-2005年的6个县（区）逐渐增加至2016-2020年的21个县（区），并从河南省东南部的驻马店市和周口市逐渐向西南部的南阳市、中部的郑州市及其周边县（区）扩散。结论 1995-2020年河南省新报告HIV/AIDS数存在空间聚集性且聚集性增强，高-高聚集区从驻马店市、周口市向南阳市和郑州市及其周边县（区）扩散，南阳市、郑州市及其周边县（区）为河南省艾滋病防控的重点区域。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To identify the spatial clustering and its temporal trends among newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan Province during 1995-2020, and to provide evidence for strategies on prevention and control of the disease. Methods Information about newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan between 1995 and 2020 were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and to describe their demographic characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and changing trends. This program was conducted at county level, using the ArcGIS 10.2. Results A total of 96 528 HIV/AIDS cases with complete current address information in counties (districts) were newly reported during 1995-2020 in Henan, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that Global Moran's I index was 0.249, ZG value of the Global Getis-Ord G coefficient was 6.472 (all P<0.001), indicating that there was a high clustered positive spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases from 1995 to 2000, 2001 to 2005, 2006 to 2010, 2011 to 2015, and 2016 to 2020 in Henan Province all exhibited high values of global spatial clustering. Their Moran's I indices were 0.197, 0.103, 0.491, 0.411 and 0.383, respectively. The ZG values of the Global Getis-Ord G coefficient were 4.580, 3.386, 10.246, 8.378 and 8.093, respectively. All of global spatial correlation were statistically significant (all P<0.001). The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan Province had high-high clustering areas at each time stage mentioned above. The number of high-high clustering counties/districts gradually increased from 6 in 2001-2005 to 21 in 2016-2020, spreading from Zhumadian City and Zhoukou City in southeast Henan to Nanyang City in southwest Henan, Zhengzhou City and its surrounding counties/districts in central Henan. Conclusions In Henan Province, an increasing trend of clusters appeared on HIV epidemic among newly reported HIV/AIDS cases from 1995 to 2020, and high-high clustering areas gradually expanded from Zhumadian City and Zhoukou City to Nanyang City, Zhengzhou City and its surrounding counties/ districts, indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the AIDS prevention and control programs in these areas in Henan. |
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