| 曾光.一种Reed-Frost确定型模型的修改型及其应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1986,7(6):356-361 |
| 一种Reed-Frost确定型模型的修改型及其应用 |
| A Modified Pattern of Reed-Frost Deterministic Model and It's Application |
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| Abstract: |
| 本文提出了一种新的包含隐性感染者因素在内的Reed-Frost确定型模型的修改型模型。阐述了该模型的假设条件与数学表达式。以此模型对美国生物统计学家H·Abbey氏模拟过的一起麻疹流行,和国内苏德隆教授、李婉先教授分别模拟过的一起水痘流行,重新做了模拟,取得了很好的效果。本文中,讨论了该修改型模型在Reed-Frost模型系列中的位置、并对用数学模型模拟该次水痘流行的问题,提出了学术争鸣。 |
| English Abstract: |
A new modified pattern of Reed-Frost Deterministci Model,including the factor of inapparent infection, was established in this paper. The main mathematical equation of this pattern was described as following:
Ct+1=(Rt-βΣotCi)(1-qCt)
Two classical epidemics of communicable diseases, the Aycock outbreak of measles which Was imitated directly with Reed-Frost Model by Prof. H. Abbey (American biostatistician) and an outbreak of chickenpox which was respectively imitated by Prof.Su De-long and Li Wan-xian,were fixed very well with this model. The position of this pattern in the series of Reed-Frost Model was pointed out.Finally,an academic contend about the models of chickenpox was raised. |
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