脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型指数曲线y=10<sup>a+bx</sup>的模拟

薛广波; 史荫绵; 王桂清

Abstract

薛广波,史荫绵,王桂清.脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型指数曲线y=10^a+bx的模拟[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1987,8(4):193-196

脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型指数曲线y=10^a+bx的模拟

A Mathematical Model of Age Distribution of Cerebrovascular Diseases Mortality

DOI：

KeyWord: 脑血管病流行病学数学模型

English Key Word: Mathematical model of epidemiology Stroke

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation
Xue Guangbo	Second Military University of Medicine, Shanghai
et al	Second Military University of Medicine, Shanghai
王桂清	Second Military University of Medicine, Shanghai

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Abstract:

脑血管病的死亡率具有随年龄的增长而升高的趋势。我们采用指数曲线y=10^a+bx,对几个人群的资料进行了数学模拟,建立了一个脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型。这一模型可以表明脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的规律。用指数曲线方程y=10^a+bx的微分方程dy/dx=In10b10^a+bx可以计算出各年龄组当年龄增长1岁时脑血管病死亡率的增量。进而,可以计算出这种增量随年龄组增长而增长的“增长倍数常数”。这种常数可以用作比较不同人群脑血管病危害程度和年龄分布规律的新的指标。此外,该模型可用于预测人群中脑血管病的死亡率和死亡数。

English Abstract:

There was a tendency that the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases increased with age. The data from several population groups were mathematically analogized, and the mathematical model of age distribution of stroke mortality was established by using the exponential curve, y=10^a+bx. The model gave an account of the law of age distribution of stroke mortality. The increment quantity of the stroke mortality in various age grouPs when age increased one year could been calculated by using the differential equation dy/dx=In10b10^a+bx from the exponential curve equation, y=10^a+bx. Further, "the increment multiple constant" of the increment quantity of stroke mortality with age groups could been calculated. The constant might be used as an new index for comparison with risk degree and age distribution law of stroke among various populations. In addition, the model might be used to Predict death cases and mortality of stroke in a population.

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