| 汪爱勤,鱼敏.灰色预测方法在疾病预测中的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1988,9(1):49-52 |
| 灰色预测方法在疾病预测中的应用 |
| The Application of Grey Dynamic Model in the Disease Prediction |
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 疾病预测 灰色动态模型 |
| English Key Word: Disease prediction Grey Dynamic Model |
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| Abstract: |
| 本文介绍了灰色系统GM (1,1)模型,并应用此模型对恶性肿瘤死亡率资料做了预测分析。经拟合与外推预测,其结果较满意。拟合与外推预测的平均误差分别占实测值均数的1.8%和2.8%。由于此模型具有所需样本量小、无需典型的概率分布、计算简便和预测效果好等优点,可作为疾病监测的有用工具。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Grey Dynamic Model was described in this paper and the death rate of malignant tumour was predicted by using this model. The data showed that the result was good for prediction. The average error of fitting and predicting were 1.8% and 2.8% of the actual mean respectively. The advantages of this model were:①a few sample was needed; ②no need of typidal probability distribution data; ③easy counting; and ④ good effect for prediction. So this model was a valuable tool, for disease surveillance. |
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