恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型

金秀媛; 张建国; 刘兵; 杜伯勤

Abstract

金秀媛,张建国,刘兵,杜伯勤.恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1990,11(2):108-112

恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型

A Mathematical Model of Ago Distribution of Malignant Tumours Mortality

Received:February 25, 1989 Revised:May 30, 1989

DOI：

KeyWord: 恶性肿瘤流行病学数学模型

English Key Word: Malignant tumours Mathematical model of epidemiology

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation
Jin Xiuyuan	Shandong Province Hygienic and Anti-Epidemic Station, Jinan
张建国	Shandong Province Hygienic and Anti-Epidemic Station, Jinan
刘兵	Shandong Province Hygienic and Anti-Epidemic Station, Jinan
杜伯勤	Shandong Province Hygienic and Anti-Epidemic Station, Jinan

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Abstract:

恶性肿瘤死亡率有随年龄增长而升高的趋势,为了探讨这种趋势的规律性,我们采用指数曲线y=10^a+bx对山东省疾病监测点恶性肿瘤死亡资料进行数学模拟建立了恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型,并用全国资料进行了验证,以观察这种模型的普遍意义。该模型不仅可从理论上阐明一个人群恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的规律,为恶性肿瘤死亡预测提供一种初步方法,还可用指数曲线方程y=10^a+bx的微分方程计算出各年龄组每增长一岁时恶性肿瘤死亡率的增量,由该模型尚可推导出一个人群恶性肿瘤死亡率随年龄增长的"增长倍敛常数",该常数可以用作比较不同人群或同一人群不同时期恶性肿瘤死亡率受年龄影响程度的指标,为恶性肿瘤病因研究提供线索。

English Abstract:

There was a tendency that the mortality of malignant tumours increased with age. In order to explore the law of this tendency, the data of malignant tumours mortalioty from diseasemo-nitoring points ia Shandong Province were mathematically analogized, and the mathematical model of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality was established by using the exponential curve, y=^10a+bx. The model was also tested and verified by using national data, to observe the universal significance of the model. The model gave a theoretical account of the law of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality from a population, and provided an initial method to predict malignant tumours mortality. The increment quantity of malignant tumours mortality in various age groups when age increased one year could be calculated by using the differential equation from the exponential curve equation, y=^10a+bx. Futher, "an increment multiple constant",of the increment quantity of malignant tumours mortality could he calculated. The constant could be used as an Index for comparison in risk degree and age distribution law of malignant tumours mortality among various age groups and the same age group in different periods, and provided leads for further research of the causes of malignant tumours.

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