| 姜波,何伟,刘清波,秦杰,杨文慧,刘颖.甘南县首例婴儿哺乳期感染流行性出血热的报告[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2000,21(5):340 |
| 甘南县首例婴儿哺乳期感染流行性出血热的报告 |
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| Received:April 30, 2000 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 血吸虫病|时间序列分析|统计预测 |
| English Key Word: |
| FundProject:国家“十五”科技攻关课题资助项目(2001BA705B08) |
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| Abstract: |
| 1999年12月21日，甘南县人民医院报告流行性脑脊髓膜炎1例，接到报告后甘南县卫生防疫站2名防疫人员到县人民医院进行流行病学调查。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the Results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002. Methods Error sum of square of four statistical Methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen. Results Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40,39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002. |
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