| 陈士杰,李秀央,周连芳.大气污染物致肺癌的潜伏期灰色定量分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2003,24(3):233-235 |
| 大气污染物致肺癌的潜伏期灰色定量分析 |
| Quantitative study by grey system on the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollutants |
| Received:May 31, 2002 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 灰色关联度 大气污染物 肺肿瘤 潜伏期 |
| English Key Word: Degree of grey incidence Air pollutant |
| FundProject:浙江省科技厅资助项目(012142) |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的测算大气污染物致肺癌的潜伏期。方法利用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度模型,根据最大关联度值测算出总体的潜伏期。结果总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)的最大关联度值为0.886,所对应的是1985～1989年的比较数列与1994～1998年的参考数列的关系最为密切。二氧化硫(SO2)的最大关联度值为0.919,对应的是1986～1990年的比较数列与1994～1998年的参考数列的关系最为密切。结论H市SO2和TSP致肺癌的潜伏期分别为7年和8年。该方法不受混杂因素的制约,且计算较为简便,为大气污染物致肺癌的潜伏期研究提供一种可行和实用的新途径 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To calculate the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollution. Methods The degree of grey incidence (DGI) between the concentrations of TSP or SO 2 and the mortality of lung cancer were assessed through a grey system model. According to the maximum values of DGI, the total latent period of lung cancer was calculated. Data was collected in H city. Results The maximum DGI value of TSP was 0.886 while the relationship between the comparison sequence from 1985 to 1989 and the reference sequence from 1994 to 1998 was greatly correlated. The maximum DGI value of SO 2 was 0.919 while the relationship between the comparison sequence from 1986 to 1990 and the reference sequence from 1994 to 1998 was most correlated. Conclusions The latent periods of lung cancer induced by TSP and SO 2 were 7 and 8 years respectively in H city. The model of grey system was less affected by the confounding factors, and the calculation process was relatively simple. A feasible and useful new way was provided by the model of grey system for quantitative analysis of the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollutants. |
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