| 平卫伟,谭红专,杨土保,周价,刘爱忠,李硕颀,孙振球.洪灾危害的卫生学综合评价指标研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2004,25(4):333-336 |
| 洪灾危害的卫生学综合评价指标研究 |
| A research on the public health index related to the comprehensive assessment on floods |
| Received:April 28, 2003 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 洪灾 自然灾害 综合评价 德尔菲法 |
| English Key Word: Flood Natural disaster Comprehensive assessment index Delphi method |
| FundProject:美国中华医学基金会资助项目(CMB98-689) |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 建立洪灾危害的卫生学综合评价指标体系。方法 应用层次分析法构建洪灾危害的卫生学初评指标体系,德尔菲法确定指标及其权重,综合评分法建立综合评价模型,百分位数法确定等级分类,最后通过方差分析和相关性分析验证等级分类区分不同受灾程度的能力和综合评价模型所包含指标的独立性。结果 建立了以洪灾危害程度为总评价目标,包含6个一级子目标和24个二级子目标的洪灾危害卫生学综合评价指标体系,确立了区分不同等级的界限,且各等级之间比较差异有统计学意义(F=76.11,P<0.01),指标之间的独立性好。结论 研究中提出洪灾危害的卫生学综合评价模型,可以较好地区分不同程度的受灾地区,并且具有较高的可靠性、综合性和实用性。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To develop a public health index related to the comprehensive assessment on the impact caused by floods. Methods A Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) theory was used to establish the initial evaluation system on the impact of floods. Modified-Delphi process was used to screen and determine the indicators and their weights while synthetical scored method was used to establish the comprehensive assessment model. Percentile was used to differentiate the degree of floods. Finally, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and correlation analysis were used to test the differentiability of the model for different degree of floods and the independence of these indicators. Results The model of comprehensive assessment on the impact of floods was set up. including six first-ranking indicators and twenty-four sub- indicators. The values of comprehenslve assessment were divided into five grades by the percentiles. Verified resulls indicated that there were significant difference among the five grades (F=76.11.P 0.01) and all indicators were independent. Conclusion An index of comprehensive assessment on the impact of floods was established, which could be used to evaluate the impact of floods and to differentiate the degree of flood, which seemed to have the characteristic of reliability. comprehensiveness and practicability. |
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