天津市2004年流感监测分析及疫苗经济效益评估

王撷秀; 单爱兰; 高璐; 李琳

Abstract

王撷秀,单爱兰,高璐,李琳.天津市2004年流感监测分析及疫苗经济效益评估[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2005,26(11):848-850

天津市2004年流感监测分析及疫苗经济效益评估

A study on the influenza surveillance program in Tianjin,2004

Received:May 30, 2005

DOI：

KeyWord: 流行性感冒监测经济学评价

English Key Word: Influenza Surveillance Economic estimate

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation
WANG Jie-xiu	Assistant Presidant of Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ttanjin 300011, China
SHAN Ai-lan	Assistant Presidant of Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ttanjin 300011, China
GAO Lu	Assistant Presidant of Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ttanjin 300011, China
LI Lin	Assistant Presidant of Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ttanjin 300011, China

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Abstract:

目的探讨天津市流感流行规律, 掌握近年流感病毒株变化, 对接种流感疫苗进行经济学评价. 方法对天津市4家国家级流感监测点医院登记报告的流感样病例资料和采样检测的结果进行分析. 对流感确诊病例和流感样病例进行流行病学调查, 建立Monte Carlo数学模型测算流感疫苗的净收益. 结果 2004年监测点医院报告流感样病例占门诊病例的8. 93%;在流感流行季节(1- 3月和10-12月), 流感样病例占门诊病例的9. 39%, 较非流行季节(4—9月)的8. 35%的差异有统计学意义(u=15. 53, P<0. 05). 全年共分离出56株流感病毒, 其中H3N2亚型45株, B型11株, 阳性分离率为13. 21%, H3N2亚型为优势毒株. 流行季节分离率为15. 41%, 较非流行季节(5. 38%)的差异有统计学意义(u=2. 519, P<0. 05). 因流感造成的门诊医疗花费每例患者在475. 93～581. 69元之间, 均值为528. 81元. 当流感对人群的浸袭率达到30%时, 0～19岁人群流感疫苗的净收益可达到0. 24亿元, 全人群净收益可达1. 28亿元. 结论 2004年天津市流感发病较为稳定, 流行优势株为H3N2亚型流感病毒. 由于夏季有报告发病增高的低波, 故还应开展全年监测予以观察.

English Abstract:

Objective To explore the trend of influenza epidemics, predominate strains of the virus in Tianjin city and to analyze the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions for the prevention and control of influenza. Methods Data on epidemiological studies and on virus surveillance was gathered. Monte Carlo mathematical simulation modelwas used for data analyses. Results From 29, December, 2003 to 2, January, 2005, the proportion of influenza-like infection cases was accounted for 8. 93% of the total number of patients from the outpatient departments of 4 general hospitals in Tianjin. The proportion reached its peak from November to February and it was accounted for 9. 39% in epidemic period, which was significantly different from that in the non-epidemic period (u = 15. 53, P<0. 05). There was 56 strains of influenza virus isolated in which 45 were indentified as A(H3N2) and 11 as B with a total positive rate as 13. 21 %. Predominant strain was found bing type A(H3N2). The positive rate was 15. 41 % in the epidemic period, which was significantly different from that in the non-epidemic period( u = 2. 519, P<0. 05). The cost per visit ranged from 475. 93 to 581. 69 Yuan (RMB) with an average cost of 528. 81 Yuan. When the attack rate increased to 30 percent, the positive mean net returns would have been 24 million Yuan among the 0-19 age group. Conclusion Influenza did not seem to be prevalent in Tianjin from 29, December, 2003 to 2, January, 2005. The main type of influenza was type A(H3N2). It is necessary to pay attention to the all-year round surveillance program due to the transformation of influenza type A and the slight increase of incidence in summer.

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