Rogerson空间模式监测方法在传染病实时监中的应用

刘巧兰; 李晓松; 冯子健; 马家奇

Abstract

刘巧兰,李晓松,冯子健,马家奇.Rogerson空间模式监测方法在传染病实时监中的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2007,28(11):1133-1137

Rogerson空间模式监测方法在传染病实时监中的应用

Study on the application of Rogerson Spatial Pattern SurveilIance Method in reaI-time surVe订lance forinfectious diseases

Received:April 19, 2007

DOI：

KeyWord: Rogerson空间模式监测方法传染病监测

English Key Word: Rogerson spatial Pattern surveillance Method surveillance for infectious diseases

FundProject:国家自然科学基金资助项目(30571618)；wH0基金资助项目(P／2004／(：HN／csE／1 I／001，activity code：03 01.04 Aw.Ol一02)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
LIU Qiao-lan	Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
LI Xiao-song	Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
FENG Zi-jian	中国疾病预防控制中心疾病控制与应急处理办公室	ziiianf@hotmail.com
MA Jia-qi	中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心

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Abstract:

探讨R。gerson空间模式监测方法在中国传染病实时监测中的应用。文中介绍该方法的原理，以中国疾病预防控制中心监测流行性脑脊髓膜炎为例，探索关键参数如K、H、n。和r的设定、模拟监测过程及解释结果等。结果表明Rogerson空间模式监测方法能够连续不断地监测传染病疫情变化，及时发出预警信息，同时确定传染病病例发生的时间和地点。R。gerson空间模式监测方法能够做到实时和动态监测，克服多重检验问题，为传染病早期防控提供可靠信息，因此在传染病聚集性探测和实时分析中具有重要应用价值。

English Abstract:

Application of Rogerson spatial Pattern surveillance Method was discussed in real-time survenlance and early monitoring for infectious diseases. Theory of Rogerson Spatial PatternSurveiUanceⅣethod was introduced in detail. Data from the program on ‘monitoring epidemiccerebrospinal meningitis with R。gerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method’ by the Chinese Center forDisease Cbntrol and Prevention provided evidence as how to choose crucial parameters such as K，H，o andr，how to simulate surveillance process and how to interpret results. Rogerson Spatial Pattern SurveillanceMethod seemed to be able to continuously monitor the changes of infectious diseases. New cases could beadded to this model at any moment and this model could provide early warning information in time when theexcess of cases occurred.Simultaneously it could provide the time and site of the extra cases.RogersonSpatial Pattem Surveillance Method could implement dynamic and real.time surveillance for infectiousdiseases.SimultaneOusly it could avoid the problem of multiple tests that causing 1arge type I error.Itgreatly helped in providing reliable information for controlling infectious diseases in early epidemic period.Hence，it had important value of application in early warning on infectious diseases.

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