| 董英,赵耐青,汤军克,陈林利.上海市闵行区日均气温对居民日死亡的影响[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2007,28(12):1179-1182 |
| 上海市闵行区日均气温对居民日死亡的影响 |
| Study on the relationship between air temperature and daily mortality in Minhang district, Shanghai |
| Received:March 15, 2007 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 日均气温 死亡 时间序列 广义相加模型 |
| English Key Word: Air temperature Mortality Time series Generalized additive model |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的研究上海市闵行区日均气温与居民死亡的关系.方法应用广义相加模型(GAM)分析时间序列资料,在控制了与时间有关的中长期趋势、星期效应、大气污染等混杂因素的基础上,拟合二次函数分析了上海市日均气温与闵行区居民死亡的关系.结果2002-2004年闵行区总死亡人数为13 919人,平均每日死亡12.70人.从各年代数据来看,日死亡人数及其他多数相关指标年平均值在3年间变化不大或多呈波动变化.只有SO2的年平均值从2002年到2004年连续增高.根据各温度点对应的气温每改变1℃居民死亡的相对危险度(RR)及95%CI,求得适温段为11.67℃～20.71℃.随着气温的升高和降低而偏离适温段时,每日居民死亡增加.结论目前上海市日均气温偏离最适温度段时,气温变化对居民死亡有影响. |
| English Abstract: |
| ObjectiveTo assess the association between air temperature and mortality in Minhang district,Shanghai.MethodsGeneralized additive model (GAM) to analyze time series was used.After controlling for medium-term and long-term trends,date in the week,situation of air pollution etc.,this study estimated the association in virtue of quadratic curve and differential coefficient principle.ResultsThe study was able to estimate an optimum temperature range (11.67℃-20.7℃) by relative risk and 95 % confidence interval of deaths with air temperature variation.The mortality in Minhang district,Shanghai increased along with the fluctuation of temperature deviating from this range.ConclusionThe findings from our study indicated that the current air temperature had an acute effect on mortality in Minhang district,Shanghai |
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