| 王德征,江国虹,宋桂德,吴彤宇,潘怡,张颖,张辉.求和自回归滑动平均模型结合圆分布法分析脑卒中死亡率动态规律[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2009,30(1):82-84 |
| 求和自回归滑动平均模型结合圆分布法分析脑卒中死亡率动态规律 |
| Autoregressive integrated moving average model and circle distribution analysis of stroke mortality in Tianjin |
| Received:July 11, 2008 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 脑卒中 死亡率 时间序列 求和自回归滑动平均模型模型 圆分布 |
| English Key Word: Stroke Mortality Time Series Auto regressive integrated moving average model Circle distribution |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | WANG De-zheng | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | JIANG Guo-hong | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | SONG Gui-de | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | WU Tong-yu | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | PAN Yi | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | ZHANG Ying | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | ZHANG Hui | Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China |
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| Abstract: |
| 通过1999年1月至2006年12月天津市脑卒中逐月死亡率数据,应用圆分布法探讨脑卒中死亡率的季节分布,动态变化规律,建立监测与预测的时间序列模型.通过模型辨识、参数估计及其检验、白噪声检验、模型的拟合度分析等过程,建立求和自回归滑动平均模型(ARIMA)的季节乘积模型(P,d,q)(P,D,Q)s. |
| English Abstract: |
| To develop a model for forecasting the mortality of stroke in Tianjin,China.The time series of stroke mortality from 1999 Jan.to 2006 Dec.in Tianjin city were subjected.Circle distribution analysis was used to verify the trend of time concentration.Multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s],based on model identification,estimation and verification of parameter,and analysis of the fitting of model,was established. |
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