中国大陆季节性流感活动的时空分布特征

高燕; 方立群; 张勇; 钱全; 李亚品; 徐翠玲; 张烨; 闫磊; 杨华; 柏延臣; 杨红; 曹务春; 舒跃龙

Abstract

高燕,方立群,张勇,钱全,李亚品,徐翠玲,张烨,闫磊,杨华,柏延臣,杨红,曹务春,舒跃龙.中国大陆季节性流感活动的时空分布特征[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2009,30(11):1097-1101

中国大陆季节性流感活动的时空分布特征

Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal influenza in mainland China

Received:June 09, 2009

DOI：

KeyWord: 流感季节性时空分布传播

English Key Word: Influenza Seasonality Spatiotemporal distribution Transmission

FundProject:国家"十-五"科技重大专项(2008ZXl0004-012, 2009ZXl0004-720)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
GAO Yan	State Key Laboratory for Molecular Virology and Genetic Engineering
FANG Li-qun	Natiohal Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention
ZHANG Yong	Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Beijing l00052, China
QIAN Quan	Natiohal Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention
LI Ya-pin	Natiohal Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention
XU Cui-ling	State Key Laboratory for Molecular Virology and Genetic Engineering
ZHANG Ye	State Key Laboratory for Molecular Virology and Genetic Engineering
YAN Lei	State Key Laboratory for Molecular Virology and Genetic Engineering
YANG Hua	Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Beijing l00052, China
BAI Yan-chen	Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Beijing l00052, China
YANG Hong	Natiohal Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention
CAO Wu-chun	Natiohal Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention	caowc@nic.bmi.ac.cn
SHU Yue-long	State Key Laboratory for Molecular Virology and Genetic Engineering	\|yshu@vip.sina.com

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Abstract:

目的研究中国大陆流感活动时空分布和季节性的流行特征及流感病毒传播规律.方法应用回顾性时空聚类分析方法探讨中国流感活动的时空分布特征,通过建立空间趋势面的方法,分析流感病毒在中国大陆扩散的总体空间趋势.结果中国大陆流感活动具有两种季节性流行模式.南方地区流感流行高峰主要在6-8月[儿科诊室流感样病例就诊比(ILI%)的RR=1.31,<0.01|内科诊室ILI%的RR=1.74,P<0.01]|北方地区流感流行高峰主要在12月至次年1月(儿科诊室ILI%的RR=1.45,P<0.01|内科诊室ILI%的RR=1.45,P<0.01).中国季节性流感病毒出现时间具有明显的由南向北先后出现的趋势.结论中国南方地区6-8月是流感防控重点时段,北方地区12月至次年1月是流感防控重点时段,同时应足够重视南方地区出现抗原变异株.

English Abstract:

Objective To study the spatiotemporal distribution and seasonal characteristics of influenza and to explore its transmission patterns, in the mainland of China.Methods Spatiotemporal cluster Methods and spatial trend surface methods were used to analyze the influenza surveillance data.Results There were a sBllllngr Deak in the south from June to August(RRmk=1.31, P RRmd=1.74, P<0.01)and a winter peak from December to January (RR=1.45,PRR=1.45, P<0.01)in the northern part of the country, during every epidemic season.Influenza virus in mainland China seemed to spread from the south to the northern parts of the country, in a progressing way.Conclusion In the southenl part of the country, it is more important to take prevention and control measurements on infiuc,Tiza from June to August but fore northern part.the key period is from December to January.It is more important to timely identify the variation ofthe influenza virus.in the southem part ofthe country.

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