| 孙果梅,高谦,彭文祥.结核病空间流行病学研究进展[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2010,31(10):1188-1191 |
| 结核病空间流行病学研究进展 |
| Progress on spatial epidemiology of tuberculosis |
| Received:May 30, 2010 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2010.10.026 |
| KeyWord: 结核病 空间流行病学 聚集性分析 |
| English Key Word: Tuberculosis Spatial epidemiology Cluster analysis |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金资助项目(30270069)；世界卫生组织基金资助项目(V2711811123)；美国PATH基金资助项目(GAV．1142一01．07228．LPS)；甘肃省科技攻关课题资助项目(2GS054一A43．014—27) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | SUN Guo-mei | Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology, Ministry of Education and Health, Fudan University, Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | gisrsgps@163.Com | | GAO Qian | Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology, Ministry of Education and Health, Fudan University, Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | PENG Wen-xiang | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fndan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Fudan University | |
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| Abstract: |
| 结核病在全球范围内仍然是一个严重的公共卫牛问题， 我国是全球22个结核病高负担国家之一，据WHO报告， 2007年全球共有927万结核病新发病例，其中我国约为130 万。正确认识结核病流行传播规律对制定切实有效的控 制措施具有重要意义，但由于结核病具有潜伏感染等特点， 使人们对其传播流行规律的认识还很不全面。目前有很多 新的理论和方法 应用到结核病流行病学研究中，空间流行病 学就是其中较新颖的一种。本文对国内外结核病空间流行 病学的研究进展进行综述。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Based on the estimate results of the capacity and preparedness of Beijing hospitals to respond to pandemic influenza,using flu surge model to evaluate its applicable hypothesis and to provide government with sentient strategy in planning pandemic influenza.Through collection of medical resources information, we calculated the possible impaction on hospitals by Flu Surge model and explored the applicable hypothesis in model operation through a questionnaire, direct observation and group discussion in 3 hospitals in Beijing.Based on flu surge model estimation during a 6-week epidemic from a pandemic virus with 35 % attack rate, Beijing would have had an estimation of 5 383 000 influenza illnesses, 2 691 500 influenza autpatients, 76 450 influenza hospitalizations and 14 508 excess deaths.For a 6-week period with 35 % attack rate, there would be a peak demand for 8 % of beds, 210 % of ICU beds, and 128 % of ventilators estimated.Outpatients in different level hospital were quite disproportionated with 1742/ hospatail/day, 650/hospatail/day, and 139/hospatail/day respectively.The sampled health workers had a mastery of 63.4 % of the total knowledge and skills of diagnosing and treating of influenza, 73.5%of them washed their hands and 63.5%used PPE correctly.The total beds capacity, medical beds capacity and respiratory medical beds capacity would increase 8%,35 % and 128 % respectively.Conclusion The estimation results could be referenced when planning the pandemic strategy, but the results should be treated objective ly when considering the hypothesis and practical situation in this model being used. |
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