| 严青华,张永慧,马文军,许燕君,许晓君,蔡秋茂,潘波,曾四清.广州市2006-2009年气温与居民每日死亡人数的时间序列研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(1):9-12 |
| 广州市2006-2009年气温与居民每日死亡人数的时间序列研究 |
| Association between temperature and daily mortality in Guangzhou, 2006-2009: a time-series study |
| Received:August 30, 2010 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 气温 死亡率 时间序列 广义相加模型 |
| English Key Word: Temperature Mortality Time-series General additive model |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 研究2006-2009年广州市气温与居民死亡人数的关系。方法 应用泊松分布的广义相加模型分析时间序列资料，控制时间的长期趋势(季节)、星期几效应、空气污染、其他气象因素等的混杂后，分析广州市日平均气温与每日死亡人数之间的关系。结果 广州市日平均气温与每日总死亡人数呈“U”形。广州市最适宜日平均气温为19.7℃，高于19.7 ℃时，平均气温每升高1 ℃，每日总死亡的风险增加3.0%(RR=1.030，95%CI：1.011～1.050)；当日平均气温不超过19.7 ℃时，平均气温每升高1 ℃，每日总死亡的风险减少3.3%(RR=0.967，95%CI：0.936～0.997)，循环系统疾病死亡风险减少3.6%(RR=0.964，95%CI：0.935～0.994)。结论 广州市日平均气温与居民每日死亡人数有关系，应该采取有效的预防措施减少气温相关死亡的发生。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To study the association between temperature and daily mortality from June 1, 2006 to December 31, 2009 in Guangzhou. Methods Time series approach was used to estimate the impact of temperature on the rates of total and cause-specific daily mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for the long-term time trend, day of week, air pollution and other weather variables. Results A slight sloping U-like relationship between the total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum average temperature (temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 19.7 ℃ in Guangzhou. For temperature above the optimum value, the relative risk of total mortality increased by 3.0% (RR=1.030, 95%CI: 1.011-1.050) for each increase of degree in Celsius. For average temperature below the optimum value, the relative risk of total mortality and diseases of circulatory system had a 3.3% (RR=0.967, 95%CI: 0.936-0.997) decrease and a 3.6% (RR=0.964, 95%CI: 0.935-0.994) increase, for each degree of Celsius increase, respectively. Conclusion Our findings showed that the temperature had an impact on the daily mortality in Guangzhou. Countermeasures needed to be taken to reduce the temperature related mortality. |
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