| 郭貔,李克.香港1997-2008年甲型流感季节性波动与气候因素的相关性分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(10):1005-1008 |
| 香港1997-2008年甲型流感季节性波动与气候因素的相关性分析 |
| A retrospective analysis on the association between seasonality of influenza A and climate factors in human from 1997 to 2008,in Hong Kong |
| Received:March 17, 2011 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j .issn.0254-6450.2011. 10.012 |
| KeyWord: 流行性感冒 气候因素 时间序列 广义相加模型 |
| English Key Word: Influenza Climate factors Time series Generalized additive model |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 研究香港地区甲型流感的人群季节性波动与气候条件的相关性。方法 收集1997-2008年香港地区甲型流感病毒监测资料和相同时期的气候因素，采用广义相加模型 (GAM)，控制混杂因素，探索气候因素对甲型流感的人群季节性流行的潜在影响，同时对这种影响效应进行定量估计。结果 甲型流感的人群季节性波动与气候的相关关系比较复杂，所拟合的非线性效应经x2检验具有统计学意义(P＜0.05)。4种气候因素的影响效应表现为从高到低、再逐渐地回升中等的趋势，流感发生率最低时对应的气候因素值域分别是平均气温(17.95 ～ 24.10)℃、相对湿度(71.5～78.5)%、平均风速(18.3～24.0)km/h与绝对湿度(4.37～4.80) mb。 结论甲型流感的人群季节性波动与平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速和绝对湿度之间存在复杂的相关性。 |
| English Abstract: |
| To investigate the association between seasonal dynamics of influenza A and climate factors in Hong Kong. Methods Data regarding monthly report on influenza A and climate during the period of 1997-2008 were collected. Generalized additive models were established to study the effects of climate factors on the seasonality of influenza A in human while confounders controlled and nonlinear effect determined. Results Results showed that the association between climate factors and the seasonality of influenza A was complicated. The nonlinear effects of climate factors on the epidemics of influenza A were significant, using x2 test (P＜0.05). The effect of the factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and absolute humidity on the seasonality of influenza A were similar, maximal at low scale, minimal at mid-rang scale and moderate at high one. The minamal effect intervals of the above factors were (17.95-24.10) ℃, (71.5-78.5 )%, (18.3-24.0) km/h and (4.37-4.80)mb respectively. Conclusion Data from this study suggested that the effect of climate factors on the seasonal dynamics of influenza A in human was complicated. |
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