| 张景,刘学,阚海东.上海市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后效应研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2012,33(12):1252-1257 |
| 上海市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后效应研究 |
| Distributed lag effects in the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality in Shanghai |
| Received:June 20, 2012 Revised:June 20, 2012 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2012.12.012 |
| KeyWord: 气温 非意外死亡 心血管系统疾病 呼吸系统疾病 非线性分布滞后模型 |
| English Key Word: perature Non-aceidental death Cardiovascular disease Respiratory disease Distributed lag nonlinear model |
| FundProject:国家环保公益项目(201209008)；上海市气象与健康重点实验室开放基金(QXJK201205) |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 了解上海市日均气温对居民每日非意外死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系.方法 根据上海市2001年1月1日至2008年12月31日每日居民死亡资料和同期气象指标及大气污染指标,采用非线性分布滞后模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,研究日均气温与日非意外死亡数、心血管疾病死亡数和呼吸系统疾病死亡数之间的关系.结果 上海市日均气温对非意外死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡效应曲线均为J形.冷效应具有延迟性,在滞后1d开始出现,4d达到最高,持续14～30d.热效应表现为急性效应,以当天最高,持续2d,呈现出明显的收获效应.结论 高温和低温均是上海市居民每日死亡的危险因素,存在滞后效应,且低温效应的滞后时间长于高温. |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To study the impact of daily mean temperature on mortality in Shanghai.Methods With data on daily mortality,meteorological and air pollution,we used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily mean temperature on deaths (caused by non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory) adjusted for both secular,seasonal trends and other confounders.Results A J-shaped relationship was found consistently between daily mean temperature and non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory deaths in Shanghai.Cold effects were delayed by 1 day to 4 days and persisted for 14-30 days.Hot effects appeared acute and the highest at the first day,but lasted for 2 days and followed by mortality displacement.ConclusionIn Shanghai,both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality with delayed effects.Cold effects seemed last longer than heat did. |
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