利用网络数据分析我国活禽市场与人感染H7N9禽流感病例的地理关系

于伟文; 杜鹏; 程陈晨; 卢珊; 阚飙; 杜孝平; 徐建国

Abstract

于伟文,杜鹏,程陈晨,卢珊,阚飙,杜孝平,徐建国.利用网络数据分析我国活禽市场与人感染H7N9禽流感病例的地理关系[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2014,35(3):266-270

利用网络数据分析我国活禽市场与人感染H7N9禽流感病例的地理关系

Investigation of geographic relationship between farmer’S market with live birds and human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus based Oil internet data analysis

Received:February 25, 2014 Revised:June 18, 2012

DOI：

KeyWord: H7N9禽流感病毒禽类交易市场风险预测实时网络信息技术

English Key Word: Avian influenza A(H7N9)virus Farmer’S markets with live birds Risk forecast Real-time information technology

FundProject:国家自然科学基金(81290345)；国家科技重大专项(2011ZXl0004-001)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Yu weiwen	###############################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################	xujianguo@icdc cn
Du juan	State Key Laboratoryfor Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Commaaicable Disease Control andPrevention, Chinese Center for Dease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Cheng chenchen	State Key Laboratoryfor Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Commaaicable Disease Control andPrevention, Chinese Center for Dease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Lu shan	State Key Laboratoryfor Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Commaaicable Disease Control andPrevention, Chinese Center for Dease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Kan biao	State Key Laboratoryfor Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Commaaicable Disease Control andPrevention, Chinese Center for Dease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Du xiaoping	College ofSoftware Engineering. Beijing University ofAeronautics Astronautics
Xu jianguo	State Key Laboratoryfor Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Commaaicable Disease Control andPrevention, Chinese Center for Dease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

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Abstract:

目的探讨利用互联网数据分析活禽市场与人感染H7N9禽流感病例之间的地理关系。方法利用网络大数据的方法，对人感染H7N9禽流感病例附近的活禽市场开展基于地理位置和可及性研究，搜索全部有病例报告地区的活禽市场，分析不同城市问活禽市场密度、人群密度、禽类生产密度等因素。结果对42个报告病例的地级以上城市10 615个活禽市场与病例所在地的距离分析表明，发病例数与常住人口密度、市场数量及其密度呈正相关性；在已报告的13个H7N9禽流感病毒检测阳性活禽市场中，除广东佛山市的3个市场外，其余都在5 km内发现病例，表明活禽交易与病例的居住地分布密切相关；共识别出13个病例较集中的热点区域分布在杭州、深圳等市。结论H7N9禽流感病毒检测阳性活禽市场所在城市的报告病例数明显高于其他城市，且影响范围多在5 km范围内，应重新审视农贸活禽市场在城市中的布局和设置。

English Abstract:

Objective Farmer’S markels with live birds(FMLB)are key sites where humaninfections by influenza A virus subtype H7N9 happened.Approximately 80%cases have exposed toFMLB.This study lS to investigate the geographic relationship between FMLB and human cases basedon analysis of intemet data of their geographic locations Methods Using big data from intemet.wesearched a11 FMLB in the cities where the human cases have been reported.then analyzed geographicrelations，and evaluated the possibility of visits of the patients tO the FMLB around them.Thedensities of FMLB.population and live poultries were also analyzed.Results Forty.1wo cities and10 615 markets were included in the study.It iS indicated that the number ofhuman cases has positive correlations with the population density，the number and density of markets.Except three markets inFoshan.human cases have been reported within 5 km of10 of 13 markets.which shows that the 1ivebird trading iS highly relevant with the distribution of cases.Wj identified 13 hot spots in the cities including Hangzhou，Shenzhen.et al，where clustered cases have emerged.Conelusion Thenumbers of human cases are signiticantly high in cities where FMLB are detected positive for H7’N9virus.These virus positive markets usually affect the people’S residence within 5km area.The numberand location of FMLB incities should be re.evaluated and re-planed for healthy city where the risk ofresidents infecting avian influenza virus iS greatly reduced or eliminated.

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