中国2015－2030年致死性道路交通伤害负担发展趋势预测

谭爱春; 田丹平; 黄渊秀; 高林; 邓欣; 李黎; 何琼; 陈田木; 胡国清; 吴静

Abstract

谭爱春,田丹平,黄渊秀,高林,邓欣,李黎,何琼,陈田木,胡国清,吴静.中国2015－2030年致死性道路交通伤害负担发展趋势预测[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2014,35(5):489-551

中国2015－2030年致死性道路交通伤害负担发展趋势预测

Forecast the trend of burden from fatal road traffic injuries between 2015 and 2030 in China

Received:September 15, 2013

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.05.017

KeyWord: 道路交通伤害负担预测

English Key Word: Road traffic injury Burden Forecasting

FundProject:中南大学教师基金项目（2013JSJJ033）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Tan Aichun	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Tian Danping	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Huang Yuanxiu	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Gao Lin	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Deng Xin	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Li Li	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
He Qiong	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Chen Tianmu	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Hu Guoqing	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha 410078，China
Wu Jing	Division of NCD Control and Community Health，Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention	wujingcdc@163.com

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Abstract:

目的预测2015－2030年中国致死性道路交通伤害负担的发展趋势。方法通过查询联合国人口司、美国农业部、世界卫生组织和中国能源基金会等机构研究，获取2015－2030年中国人均国内生产总值、城市化水平、机动化水平及教育水平预测值。将该预测值代入已构建的双对数模型，预测2015－2030中国年致死性道路交通害负担的预测值。结果 2015－2030年中国道路交通伤害死亡率总体呈缓慢下降趋势，2015、2020、2025、2030年依次为13.7/10万、13.4/10 万、12.8/1万、11.8/10 万；因道路交通伤害死亡人数同样呈下降趋势，分别为 190 565、189 358、183 051、169 033 人，所致寿命损失年同样呈逐渐下降趋势，分别为691.8、663.4、618.9、551.3 万年，但其中≥55 岁年龄组寿命损失年呈不断上升的趋势。敏感性分析显示，预测结果较稳定。结论 2015－2030年中国道路交通伤害死亡率、死亡人数及所致寿命损失年呈逐渐下降趋势；但≥55岁年龄组因道路交通伤害死亡人数和寿命损失年却呈不断上升趋势。

English Abstract:

Objective To predict the burden caused by fatal road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Methods We searched the websites of United Nations Population Division，United States Department of Agriculture，World Health Organization，China Energy Research Foundation and other agencies to obtain the predictive values of gross domestic product（GDP）per capita，urbanization，motorization and education from 2015 to 2030 in China. Predicted values were then applied tolog-linear models to estimate the numbers and years of life lost due to road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Results The mortality rate caused by road traffic injury decreased slightly，from 13.7/100 000 in 2015 to 11.8/100 000 in 2030. 191，189，183，169 thousand persons were estimated to diefrom road traffic crashes in 2015，2020，2025 and 2030，respectively，showing a declining trend. Years of Life Lost（YLLs）caused by road traffic deaths were predicted to be 6 918，6 634，6 189，5 513 thousand years in 2015，2020，2025 and 2030，respectively，also showing a gradual downward trend.But the YLLs displayed an increase among people at 55 years of age or older，between 2015 and 2030.Results from the sensitivity analysis showed a stable forecasting result. Conclusion Mortality，number of deaths and YLLs from road traffic crashes were predicted to decrease slightly，between 2015 and 2030 but the number of deaths and YLLs due to road traffic injuries will continue to increase from 2015 to 2030.

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