应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数

贾蕾; 王小莉; 吴双胜; 马建新; 李洪军; 高志勇; 王全意

Abstract

贾蕾,王小莉,吴双胜,马建新,李洪军,高志勇,王全意.应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2016,37(1):102-105

应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数

Estimation of excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model

Received:June 04, 2015

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.01.022

KeyWord: 病毒性腹泻调整Serfling回归模型超额病例数

English Key Word: Viral diarrheal Adjusted Serfling regression model Excess case number

FundProject:北京市自然科学基金(7132045)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Jia Lei	Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
Wang Xiaoli	Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
Wu Shuangsheng	Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
Ma Jianxin	Department of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
Li Hongjun	Department of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 101100, China
Gao Zhiyong	Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
Wang Quanyi	Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China	bjcdcxm@126.com

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Abstract:

目的构建调整Serfling回归模型,估计北京市2011年至2015年5月23日病毒性腹泻相关 <5岁儿童超额腹泻病例数。方法利用北京市2家儿童专科医院 <5岁儿童急性腹泻周就诊病例数,拟合调整Serfling回归模型,估计其病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数。结果北京市2011年第8～10周、40～42周,2012年第40～46周,2013年第43～49周,2014年第45周直到2015年第11周为病毒性腹泻流行周。2家儿童专科医院各年度流行周 <5岁儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额就诊病例数分别为911(95%CI:261～1 561)、1 998(95%CI:1 250～2 746)、1 645(95%CI:891～2 397)、2 806(95%CI:1 938～3 674)、1 822(95%CI:614～3 031)例,分别占同期全部 <5岁儿童腹泻就诊病例数的40.38%(95%CI:11.57%～69.19%)、44.21%(95%CI:27.66%～60.77%)、45.08%(95%CI:24.42%～65.69%)、60.87%(95%CI:42.04%～79.70%)和66.62%(95%CI:22.45%～110.82%)。估计北京市2011年至2015年5月23日 <5岁儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额就诊病例数为18 731(95%CI:10 106～27 354)例。结论冬季是 <5岁儿童病毒性腹泻发病及就诊高峰。调整Serfling回归模型提示:应关注致急性胃肠炎病毒,尤其是诺如病毒的病原学变化。

English Abstract:

Objective To estimate the excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing from 1 January 2011 to 23 May 2015. Methods The excess numbers of diarrheal cases among the children aged <5 years were estimated by using weekly outpatient visit data from two children's hospital in Beijing and adjusted Serfling regression model. Results The incidence peaks of viral diarrhea were during 8th-10th week and 40th-42nd week in 2011, 40th-46th week in 2012, 43rd-49th week in 2013 and 45th week in 2014 to 11th week in 2015 respectively. The excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in the two children's hospital were 911(95%CI: 261-1 561), 1 998(95%CI: 1 250-2 746), 1 645 (95%CI: 891-2 397), 2 806(95%CI: 1 938-3 674) and 1 822(95%CI: 614-3 031) respectively, accounting for 40.38%(95%CI: 11.57%-69.19%), 44.21%(95%CI: 27.66%-60.77%), 45.08%(95%CI: 24.42%-65.69%), 60.87%(95%CI: 42.04%-79.70%) and 66.62% (95%CI: 22.45%-110.82%) of total outpatient visits due to diarrhea during 2011-2015, respectively. Totally, the excess number of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing was estimated to be 18 731(95%CI: 10 106-27 354) from 2011 to 23 May 2015. Conclusions Winter is the season of viral diarrhea for children aged <5 years. The adjusted Serfling regression model analysis suggested that close attention should be paid to the etiologic variation of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis, especially the etiologic variation of norovirus.

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