中国35岁及以上人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测

张梅; 黄正京; 李镒冲; 王丽敏; 姜勇; 赵文华

Abstract

张梅,黄正京,李镒冲,王丽敏,姜勇,赵文华.中国35岁及以上人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2016,37(5):689-693

中国35岁及以上人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测

Prediction of 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease in adults aged ≥ 35 years in China

Received:October 04, 2015

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.05.021

KeyWord: 心血管病,缺血性风险评估

English Key Word: Ischemic cardiovascular disease Risk evaluation

FundProject:2010年中央转移支付地方项目

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Zhang Mei	Division of Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Huang Zhengjing	Division of Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Li Yichong	Division of Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Wang Limin	Division of Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Jiang Yong	Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050
Zhao Wenhua	National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China	zhaowh@chinacdc.cn

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Abstract:

目的评估我国≥35岁人群缺血性心血管病10年发病风险。方法 2010年在全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团的162个监测点,采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样方法,调查≥18岁成年人98712名,抽取其中≥35岁无缺血性心血管病史者共计67214人为调查对象,通过体格测量和相关指标实验室检测,以及面对面问卷调查收集吸烟情况,高血压、糖尿病和心血管病患病情况。采用国人缺血性心血管病10年发病危险度评估表预测缺血性心血管病10年发病风险。结果我国≥35岁无缺血性心血管病史人群的缺血性心血管病10年发病风险预测得分为5.1(95%CI:4.9~5.2),平均危险度为4.2%(95%CI:4.0%~4.4%)。其中缺血性心血管病10年发病危险为高危者占8.5%(95%CI:7.8%~9.2%),男性(12.1%,95%CI:11.1%~13.0%)明显高于女性(4.9%,95%CI:4.4%~5.5%)(P<0.05),农村人群(8.8%,95%CI:7.8%~9.7%)高于城市人群(8.1%,95%CI:7.2%~8.9%)(P<0.05);10年发病风险为中危和低危者比例分别为19.1% (95%CI:18.2%~20.0%)和72.4%(95%CI:70.9%~73.9%)。随着教育水平提高或收入增加,缺血性心血管病10年发病风险为高危和中危者的比例均有所下降(P<0.05),而低危者的比例上升(P<0.05)。结论我国≥35岁人群中有8.5%在未来10年发生缺血性心血管病的可能性超过10%,其中尤为应关注男性、农村、教育水平较低、收入较低人群。

English Abstract:

Objective To estimate the 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) in adults aged ≥35 years. Methods In 2010, we conducted a cross sectional survey among 98 712 adults aged ≥18 years selected through using multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling, and 67 214 adults without ICVD history and aged ≥35 years were recruited as study subjects. Their information on cardiovascular disease history and related behavior risk factors, including smoking, hypertension and diabetes diagnosis history were collected through face-to-face questionnaire interview, health examination and laboratory detection. The 10-year risk for ICVD in this group was evaluated according to the China 10-year risk for ICVD score tables. Results The average score and 10-year risk for ICVD in the adults aged ≥35 years were 5.1 (95%CI:4.9-5.2) and 4.2% (95%CI:4.0%-4.4%), respectively. A total of 8.5% of the adults aged ≥35 years had high 10-year risk for ICVD (95%CI:7.8%-9.2%). This proportion was 12.1% for males (95%CI:11.1%-13.0%) and 4.9% for females (95%CI:4.4%-5.5%) (P<0.05), 8.8% for those living in rural areas (95%CI:7.8%-9.7%) and 8.1% for those living in urban areas (95%CI:7.2%-8.9%)(P<0.05). About 19.1% and 72.4% of adults had middle and low 10-year risk for ICVD, respectively (95%CI:18.2%-20.0%, 95%CI:70.9%-73.9%). The proportion of the adults with high and middle risk for ICVD in 10 years was higher among those with lower educational level or with lower income level (P<0.05). Conclusion About 8.5% of the adults aged ≥35 years in China have high 10-year risk for ICVD. Being male, living in rural area, with lower education or lower income levels were related with the higher 10-year risk for ICVD.

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