| 栾桂杰,殷鹏,王黎君,周脉耕.我国6城市高温对糖尿病死亡影响的观察性研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2018,39(5):646-650 |
| 我国6城市高温对糖尿病死亡影响的观察性研究 |
| An observational study of high air temperature on diabetes mortality in six cities in China |
| Received:September 26, 2017 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.05.020 |
| KeyWord: 高温 糖尿病 死亡 分布滞后非线性模型 |
| English Key Word: High air temperature Diabetes Mortality Distributed lag nonlinear model |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Luan Guijie | Institute for Immunization Management, Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China | | | Yin Peng | Division of Vital Statistics and Death Surveillance, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Wang Lijun | Division of Vital Statistics and Death Surveillance, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Zhou Maigeng | National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | maigengzhou@126.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 探讨中国6城市高温对人群糖尿病死亡的影响。方法 收集北京、天津、上海、重庆、广州和沈阳6个城市2008年1月1日至2013年12月31日的每日糖尿病死亡人数和气象数据。运用分布滞后非线性模型，控制长期趋势、“星期几效应”等的影响，分析高温和每日糖尿病死亡的相关性。结果 高温对糖尿病死亡的影响在不同城市间存在差异，高温对北京、天津、上海、重庆、广州和沈阳糖尿病死亡影响的累积相对危险度的最大值分别为1.37（滞后2 d）、1.32（滞后0 d）、1.40（滞后0 d）、1.26（滞后2 d）、1.48（滞后2 d）和1.67（滞后3 d）。男、女性糖尿病日死亡数基本相同，女性略高于男性，但高温对糖尿病死亡的影响未观察到性别规律。高温致65～84岁年龄组死亡人数最多，占总死亡的60%以上，差异有统计学意义。结论 高温环境下中国6城市糖尿病死亡率明显增加。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To evaluate the effect of high air temperature on diabetes mortality in six cities in China. Methods Daily diabetes mortality and meteorological data were collected from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2013 in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shenyang. Distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between high air temperature and diabetes mortality after controlling for the long-term trend and the effect of "day of week". Results The effect of high air temperature on diabetes mortality varied in different cities, the maximum cumulative relative risk of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou and Shenyang were 1.37 (lag 2 days), 1.32 (lag 0 days), 1.40 (lag 0 days), 1.26 (lag 2 days), 1.48 (lag 2 days) and 1.67 (lag 3 days). The daily diabetes death numbers were similar in men and women, but the death number in women were slightly higher than that in men, no gender specific characteristics were found. The death number was highest in age group 65-84 years, accounting for >60% of the total deaths, the difference was significant. Conclusion The mortality of diabetes increased obviously in the context of high air temperature environment. |
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