应用传染病动力学模型评估广州市“互联网+艾滋病综合预防服务体系”防治效果

刘建华; 程伟彬; 徐慧芳; 顾菁; 郝春; 何蔚云; 王科儒; 钟斐; 魏丹诺; 彭丽萍; 郝元涛; 李菁华

Abstract

刘建华,程伟彬,徐慧芳,顾菁,郝春,何蔚云,王科儒,钟斐,魏丹诺,彭丽萍,郝元涛,李菁华.应用传染病动力学模型评估广州市“互联网+艾滋病综合预防服务体系”防治效果[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2019,40(10):1227-1233

应用传染病动力学模型评估广州市“互联网+艾滋病综合预防服务体系”防治效果

Prevention effectiveness of the “Internet Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System” among MSM in Guangzhou: a dynamic model of infectious disease

Received:April 13, 2019

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.10.011

KeyWord: 艾滋病病毒/艾滋病动力学模型男男性行为人群互联网+

English Key Word: HIV/AIDS Dynamic model Men who have sex with men Internet Plus

FundProject:国家自然科学基金（81803334，71774178，71974212）；美国中华医学基金会（18-301）；国家科技重大专项（2018ZX10715004）；广东省省级科技计划（2017A020212006）；广州市科学（技术）研究专项（201607010332，201607010368）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Liu Jianhua	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Cheng Weibin	Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Xu Huifang	Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Gu Jing	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Hao Chun	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
He Weiyun	Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Wang Keru	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Zhong Fei	Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Wei Dannuo	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Peng Liping	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Hao Yuantao	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Li Jinghua	School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China	lijinghua3@mail.sysu.edu.cn

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Abstract:

目的应用传染病动力学模型评估“互联网+艾滋病综合预防服务体系”对2010－2017年广州市互联网型MSM艾滋病流行趋势的影响。方法构建广州市互联网型MSM的传染病动力学模型（模型），收集整理广州市哨点监测的互联网型MSM相关数据，进行文献检索，调整模型运行的输入参数及校正参数。运用Matlab 7.0软件将模型参数及微分方程进行编程和计算，对2010年互联网艾滋病预防服务开展前后，分析MSM HIV流行趋势，评估广州市互联网艾滋病预防服务对MSM艾滋病的防治效果。结果模型估计，按照2010年之前的基线情况下，模型估计2017年MSM HIV感染率将上升至22.75%，2010－2017年累计新发HIV感染者11 038例。按照开展互联网艾滋病预防服务的情况下，模型估计2010－2017年MSM的HIV感染率分别为8.44%、9.68%、10.65%、11.34%、11.73%、11.83%、11.71%和11.43%，与哨点监测数据相近，模型拟合度高；2010－2017年累计新发HIV感染者4 009例，减少新发HIV感染者7 029例（63.68%）。结论构建的模型拟合结果较为合理，适用于预测广州市互联网型MSM HIV流行趋势；广州市自2010年建立“互联网+艾滋病综合预防服务体系”以来，到2015年基本遏制了互联网型MSM新发HIV感染的上升势头，其防治效果较好。

English Abstract:

Objective To evaluate the effect of the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System"among MSM in Guangzhou, during 2010-2017, using a dynamic compartmental model. Methods A dynamic compartmental model was developed to describe the HIV situation among MSM in Guangzhou. This model was parameterized on data from published literature or surveillance programs from the Guangzhou CDC. The Matlab 7.0 software was used for coding and analysis on collected data. HIV prevalence was analyzed among MSM under the status quo data and estimated the impact by the "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project. Results HIV prevalence would have increased to 22.75% in 2017, and the total number of new HIV infections would have been 11 038, from 2010 to 2017, using the data status quo. Under the Guangzhou "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project, the prevalence of HIV among MSM from 2010 to 2017 was estimated to be 8.44%, 9.68%, 10.65%, 11.34%, 11.73%, 11.83%, 11.71% and 11.43% in Guangzhou, which were similar to the surveillance data. The total number of new infections in the past 8 years under the "Internet Plus" scenario was estimated to be 4 009. The "Internet Plus" program would have prevented 7 029 (63.68%) new infections during 2010-2017 as compared to the number, status quo. Conclusions The fitting result of dynamic compartmental model seemed more reasonable, which was applicable to predict HIV epidemic among MSM in Guangzhou, suggesting that the increase of HIV prevalence had been curbed since the "Internet Plus" project which was launched in 2010, and the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" had achieved the purpose as planned, epidemiologically.

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