| 杜志成,郝元涛,魏永越,张志杰,沈思鹏,赵杨,唐金陵,陈峰,姜庆五,李立明.基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法的COVID-19年龄别病死率估计[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(11):1777-1781 |
| 基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法的COVID-19年龄别病死率估计 |
| Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the age-specific case fatality rate of COVID-19 |
| Received:June 09, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200609-00823 |
| KeyWord: 病死率 马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟 新型冠状病毒肺炎 |
| English Key Word: Case fatality rate Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation COVID-19 |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金（81773543，81973150）；中山大学2020年度“三大”建设大科研项目培育专项 |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Du Zhicheng | School of Public Health, Global Health Institute, Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control for the Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Hao Yuantao | School of Public Health, Global Health Institute, Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control for the Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | haoyt@mail.sysu.edu.cn | | Wei Yongyue | School of Public Health, Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China | | | Zhang Zhijie | School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | Shen Sipeng | School of Public Health, Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China | | | Zhao Yang | School of Public Health, Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China | | | Tang Jinling | Guangzhou Women and Children Medical Center, Guangzhou 510623, China | | | Chen Feng | School of Public Health, Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China | | | Jiang Qingwu | School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | Li Liming | School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情已席卷全球，疫情结束前，其病死率的估计受现有确诊病例和发病到死亡时间分布的影响，且结论尚不明确，本研究旨在对新型冠状病毒肺炎的年龄别病死率进行估计。方法 收集国家卫生健康委员会和CDC发布的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情数据信息，采用Gamma分布拟合发病到死亡时间分布规律，采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟估计年龄别病死率。结果 新型冠状病毒肺炎的发病到死亡时间M=13.77（P25～P75：9.03～21.02）d，总病死率为4.1%（95% CI：3.7%～4.4%），0～、10～、20～、30～、40～、50～、60～、70～和≥80岁组病死率分别为0.1%、0.4%、0.4%、0.4%、0.8%、2.3%、6.4%、14.0%和25.8%。结论 校正删失的马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法适用于新发突发传染病疫情期间的病死率估计，尽早明确新型冠状病毒肺炎的病死率有助于疫情的防控。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objectives The COVID-19 epidemic has swept all over the world. Estimates of its case fatality rate were influenced by the existing confirmed cases and the time distribution of onset to death, and the conclusions were still unclear. This study was aimed to estimate the age-specific case fatality rate of COVID-19. Methods Data on COVID-19 epidemic were collected from the National Health Commission and China CDC. The Gamma distribution was used to fit the time from onset to death. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate age-specific case fatality rate. Results The median time from onset to death of COVID-19 was M=13.77 (P25-P75: 9.03-21.02) d. The overall case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 4.1% (95%CI: 3.7%-4.4%) and the age-specific case fatality rate were 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.4%,0.8%, 2.3%, 6.4%, 14.0 and 25.8% for 0-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, 50-, 60-, 70- and ≥80 years group, respectively. Conclusions The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method adjusting censored is suitable for case fatality rate estimation during the epidemic of a new infectious disease. Early identification of the COVID-19 case fatality rate is helpful to the prevention and control of the epidemic. |
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