| 王德征,张辉,张爽,孙坤,王冲,王卓,宋桂德,沈成凤,郑文龙,江国虹.1999-2018年天津市居民平均期望寿命变化分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(5):814-822 |
| 1999-2018年天津市居民平均期望寿命变化分析 |
| Study on increase of average life expectancy of residents in Tianjin from 1999 to 2018 |
| Received:July 17, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200717-00954 |
| KeyWord: 期望寿命 死亡率 期望寿命分解法 |
| English Key Word: Life expectancy Mortality Decomposition of life expectancy |
| FundProject:天津市卫生高层次人才选拔培养项目（2018） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Wang Dezheng | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Zhang Hui | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Zhang Shuang | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Sun Kun | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Wang Chong | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Wang Zhuo | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Song Guide | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Shen Chengfeng | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Zheng Wenlong | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | | | Jiang Guohong | Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China | jiangguohongtjcdc@126.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析近20年天津市居民期望寿命变化规律以及对期望寿命增量的影响因素。方法 应用简略寿命表、期望寿命差异的年龄和死因分解法对天津市户籍居民1999-2018年死因监测数据进行分析，计算不同年龄、不同疾病死亡率对期望寿命增量的贡献值和百分比。结果 20年间天津市户籍居民期望寿命增加了4.97岁，男性、女性期望寿命分别增加4.11岁和5.86岁，女性增幅高于男性。0岁组死亡率下降对期望寿命增加的贡献率为19.17%，≥55岁组居民死亡率下降对期望寿命的增加贡献较大，累计贡献率为67.38%。脑血管病、呼吸系统疾病、心脏病、围生期情况、先天畸形以及损伤和中毒死亡率下降对期望寿命提高的贡献较大，贡献率分别为27.27%、21.37%、15.76%、12.22%、6.44%和4.86%。恶性肿瘤、损伤和中毒、糖尿病、神经系统疾病等死亡率的增加对≥75岁人群寿命增长产生负向作用。天津市期望寿命增加具有阶段性特点，1999-2011年为76.72~81.46岁，具有上升趋势（t=9.11，P<0.001），年度变化百分比（APC）为0.58%；2011-2018年为81.46~81.69岁，为平稳趋势（t=0.89，P=0.387），APC为0.13%。结论 1999-2018年天津市居民期望寿命增长主要归因于婴儿、老年人、脑血管病、呼吸系统疾病、心脏病、围生期情况、先天畸形以及损伤和中毒死亡率的下降，而≥75岁人群恶性肿瘤、损伤和中毒、糖尿病、神经系统疾病等死亡率的增加对期望寿命增长产生了负向作用。应加强重点人群、重点疾病的综合防治，进一步提高人群期望寿命。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To assess the trend and the factors responsible for the increase of life expectancy of residents in Tianjin over the past two decades. Methods Abridged Life Table and Arriaga's decomposition method was applied to quantify the influence of the age structure and the leading causes of death on the increase of life expectancy of residents in Tianjin from 1999 to 2018. Results In the past 20 years, the life expectancy of residents in Tianjin increased by 4.97 years, the life expectancy of men and women increased by 4.11 years and 5.86 years, respectively. The decrease of mortality rate in 0-year-old group contributed 19.17% to the increase of the life expectancy, while the decrease of mortality rate in residents aged ≥ 55 years contributed more to the increase of life expectancy, with the cumulative contribution rate of 67.38%. The major contribution to the increase of life expectancy was the mortality reduction of cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, perinatal diseases, congenital malformations and injury, with the contribution percentage of 27.27%, 21.37%, 15.76%, 12.22%, 6.44% and 4.86%, respectively. The increase of mortality of malignant tumor, injury and poisoning, diabetes and nervous system diseases and others had a negative effect on the increase of life expectancy of people aged ≥ 75 years. From 1999 to 2018, the life expectancy increased from 76.72 years to 81.46 years (t=9.11, P<0.001), the annual percent change (APC) was 0.58%. From 2011 to 2018, it was stable, ranging from 81.46 years to 81.69 years (t=0.89, P=0.387, APC=0.13%). Conclusion From 1999 to 2018, the increase of life expectancy was attributed to the decrease of mortalities in infants and the elderly and the decrease of mortalities of cerebro-cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, perinatal disease, congenital malformations and injury. However, these positive contributions were partly offset by the negative contribution of malignant tumor, injury, diabetes and nervous system disease in those aged ≥ 75 years. Comprehensive prevention and control of key diseases should be strengthened in key population in order to further improve the life expectancy of the population. |
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