| 肖燕妮,李倩,周伟柯,彭志行,唐三一.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情多次暴发的动力学机制分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(6):966-976 |
| 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情多次暴发的动力学机制分析 |
| Analysis on dynamical mechanism of multi outbreaks of COVID-19 |
| Received:February 19, 2021 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210219-00123 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 暴发 干预 易感人群 传播动力学模型 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 Outbreak Intervention Susceptible population Model of transmission dynamics |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金（12031010，11631012，81673275，91846302）；国家科技重大专项（2018ZX10715002-004-002，2018ZX10713001-001） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Xiao Yanni | Center for Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China | | | Li Qian | Center for Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China | | | Zhou Weike | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710019, China | | | Peng Zhihang | School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China | zhihangpeng@njmu.edu.cn | | Tang Sanyi | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710019, China | sytang@snnu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 新型冠状病毒肺炎（新冠肺炎）自暴发以来，世界各国疫情形势、非药物防控措施、疫情下的民众行为模式及疫苗接种等差异巨大。我国疫情也在经历较长时间无本土病例后，由于境外输入等因素引起局部疫情暴发，给疫情防控带来巨大挑战。深入探讨疫情多次暴发的机制和差异性是极为必要的。方法 本研究基于SEIR传染病动力学模型，构建新颖的演化方程来融合干预措施和疫苗接种以及民众行为改变的动态过程。发展方法计算最优的干预强度和疫苗接种速率使得易感人群规模低于其阈值，从而避免疫情的二次暴发。结果 强干预或超强干预措施过早地解除，一个弱的诱因会不同程度地导致新冠肺炎疫情的再次暴发，而且早期控制措施越强，解除后二次暴发的程度越大；民众个体行为变化对疫情的敏感性程度以及防控措施的加强与解除是诱导疫情多次暴发的关键因素；最优的早期干预措施和及时优化接种疫苗不仅能够避免后期疫情的多次暴发，更能有效地降低第一波疫情的峰值并推迟其到来的时间。结论 本研究揭示了干预措施的强弱与解除、民众行为对疫情的响应切换、疫苗接种率和时效性、外界诱因和新冠病毒传播强度等因素诱导新冠肺炎疫情的多次暴发。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective In the context of COVID-19 pandemic, the epidemic severities, non-pharmaceutical intervention intensities, individual behavior patterns and vaccination coverage vary with countries in the world. China has experienced a long period without indigenous cases, unfortunately, multi local outbreaks caused by imported cases and other factors have been reported, posing great challenges to COVID-19 prevention and control in China. Thus it is necessary to explore the mechanisms of the re-emerged COVID-19 epidemics and their differences. Methods Based on susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) epidemic dynamics model, we developed a set of novel evolution equations which can describe the dynamic processes of integrated influence of interventions, vaccination coverage and individual behavior changes on the re-emergency of COVID-19 epidemic. We developed methods to calculate the optimal intervention intensity and vaccination rate at which the size of susceptible population can be reduced to less than threshold for the re-emergency of COVID-19 epidemic. Results If strong interventions or super interventions are lifted too early, even a small cause can lead to the re-emergence of COVID-19 epidemic at different degrees. Moreover, the stronger the early control measures lifted are, the more severe the epidemic is. The individual behavior changes for the susceptibility to the epidemic and the enhancement or lifting of prevention and control measures are key factors to influence the incidence the multi outbreaks of COVID-19. The optimist early intervention measures and timely optimization of vaccination can not only prevent the re-emergency of COVID-19 epidemic, but also effectively lower the peak of the first wave of the epidemic and delay its arrival. Conclusion The study revealed that factors for the re-emergence of COVID-19 epidemics included the intensity and lifting of interventions, the change of individual behavior to the response of the epidemic, external incentives and the transmissibility of COVID-19. |
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